Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Pick & Predictions

No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 28th, 2023, 7:00 PM (EST)
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TEN -4 / UK +4
Moneyline: TEN -180 / UK +160
Total: 51.5

After suffering a hard-fought 34-20 defeat on the road at Alabama, No. 21 Tennessee will attempt to rebound this week with another difficult road trip when they face the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. The Volunteers held a 20-7 lead at halftime last week against the Crimson Tide but were held scoreless in the 2nd half while allowing multiple big plays. With all things considered, the Vols still appear to be one of the better teams in the SEC, and they will be 4-point favorites when they travel to Lexington on Saturday.

After starting the year with a perfect 5-0 SU record, the Wildcats dropped their last two contests against No. 1 Georgia and Missouri before enjoying a much-needed “off” week last weekend. The Wildcats have been one of the pleasant surprise stories in the SEC this season, but they are still missing a defining victory. The Wildcats will have the opportunity to capture a quality victory this weekend, and perhaps the circumstances are optimal for a Wildcats team fresh off a bye week and catching the Vols in a potential letdown scenario.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

In analyzing this match-up, I must say I am intrigued to say the least. The Wildcats rely on a heavy ground attack that is backed by solid defense to create a formula of ball control and security. Running back Ray Davis has amassed 781 yards on the season, which ranks 2nd in the entire SEC. In many ways, Davis is the heart of this Kentucky offense, but he will be faced with a difficult challenge against a really tough Tennessee defense that has only allowed 109 yards per game on the ground.

Tennessee’s strength along the defensive front is one of the reasons that I expected the Vols to play well against the Crimson Tide last week. With that being stated, I’m not sure if Kentucky QB Devin Leary is reliable enough to pick up the slack if the Vols can stop the running game. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Vols will also have a difficult match-up offensively against a Kentucky defense that ranks in the top 25 in nearly every major category. Like the Wildcats, the Vols’ offense relies on a strong running attack behind tailbacks Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. The major difference is that Tennessee QB Joe Milton III is capable of leading the offense when the running game stalls. Milton’s ability to extend plays, pick up first downs with the feet, and get the ball downfield to receivers Squirrel White and Ramel Keyton should give the Volunteers the better paths to victory. However, they must protect the football for those narratives to hold true.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends

• Tennessee is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 games.
• Tennessee is 16-4 SU in the last 20 games.
• Tennessee has hit the “under” in 6 of the last 9 games.
• Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games against Kentucky.
• Kentucky is 5-2 SU in the last 7 games.
• Kentucky has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games.
• Kentucky has hit the “under” in 9 of the last 13 games against SEC opponents.
• Kentucky is 1-7 ATS in the last 8 games at home against Tennessee.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Prediction

I really like the defensive match-ups in this game and favor the under as a solid play. However, I will back the better offense and better all-around team in Tennessee. I fear the Vols situationally could be in a letdown following the loss to Alabama, but I have to trust they will give a quality effort. The Vols simply have more paths to victory if the effort is there!

Jay’s Pick: Take Tennessee -4