Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Pick

No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)

College Football Week 8

Date/Time: Saturday, October 21st, 2023. 3:30 PM (EST)

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Ten +9.5/ALA -9.5 (Make Tenn a +29.5 underdog or Bama a +10.5 dog by inserting either into a massive 20 point CFB teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: Vols +260/Tide -350

Total: 56.5

Just a bout a week ago at this time, the majority of the nation believed the Alabama Crimson Tide had fixed their early season problems and were perhaps back on the path to another College Football Playoff. However, the Crimson Tide just barely escaped Bryant-Denny Stadium with a victory last week as 20-point favorites against Arkansas. The Crimson Tide offense once again failed to move the football, yielding just 3 points in the 2nd half. As a result, Alabama’s reign of dominance in the SEC may be in question and will be tested again this Saturday with a home stand against the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers.

The visiting Volunteers pulled out a 20-13 victory against Texas A&M last week to move to 5-1 SU with their only loss coming to Florida back in week 3. Thus far this year, the Volunteers appear to be meeting expectations. With the exception of the Florida game, the offense has played well behind QB Joe Milton and a running game spearheaded by RB Jaylen Wright. More importantly, the Volunteers’ defense has played very well, allowing just 303 total yards per game, which ranks 17th in college football. In fact, I would argue that the Volunteers’ defense will likely continue to frustrate the struggling Alabama offense in this matchup, which leads to a sharp betting opportunity.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

While a lot of people will point to the spotty play of QB Jalen Milroe as the reason Alabama has regressed this season, I would argue that the Alabama running game has also been a big contributor as well. The Crimson Tide no longer have an overly dominant running game. Running backs Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams have posted decent statistics combining for 773 yards on the season. However, Alabama has traditionally had All-American talent in the backfield and an offensive line that could bully opposing defenses. Unfortunately, I’m not sure if either of those are true for this 2023 campaign.

In this week’s match-up against the Volunteers, I see a Tennessee defense that has a very solid defensive front that is going to be able to challenge Alabama’s run game in the trenches. The question for the Volunteers’ path to success remains around the play of the offense and QB Joe Milton who has displayed mediocre results this season. The Volunteers have a strong running attack behind RB Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. However, like Alabama’s offense, the Volunteers will be running into the strength of the Alabama defense which is along the front!

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

• Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games.
• Tennessee is 6-1 SU in the last 7 games.
• Tennessee has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games.
• Tennessee has hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games on the road.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in 6 of the last 9 games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in 8 of the last 11 games against Tennessee.
• Alabama is 19-1 SU in the last 20 games at home.
• Alabama is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games against Tennessee.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

As alluded to in the matchup breakdown above, I believe both defenses match up well in this contest. I would not be surprised to see Tennessee’s defense give them a chance to win this game outright. I would also not be surprised to see Alabama have a dominant defensive performance with a few turnovers if they can get QB Joe Milton into pressure situations. I’m betting at least one defense has a big day and gets an easy cash for the under!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 56.5