TCU vs. Stanford: Week 1 College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions

TCU Horned Frogs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

The TCU Horned Frogs come to the West Coast to take on the Stanford Cardinal on Friday, as both teams open up their college football seasons. Stanford enters the ACC this season with the dissolution of the Pac-12. They look to take a step up following three straight 3-9 seasons, two under former coach David Shaw and last season under now second-year head coach Troy Taylor. Texas Christian, meanwhile, fell to 5-7 a year after making the College Football Playoff as Sonny Dykes looks to get the Horned Frogs back to being a force in the Big-12. Let’s break this one down!

Transition Year for Stanford

You wonder how the Cardinal are going to do in the ACC as a program that hasn’t caught many breaks and have been in a state of freefall for several seasons, not surpassing four wins since 2018. It won’t manifest this week playing at home, but there will be a lot more travel, though a potentially less-draining conference schedule overall.

Last season, the Cardinal did not win any games at home, even taking a loss to the FCS’ Sacramento State. They’re 1-14 in their last 15 at home straight-up against FBS opponents. So yeah, TCU might not make it to this part of the country for a lot of games, with this being the first and last time most Horned Frogs players will see this field, but in recent times, that home-field hasn’t counted for much for the Cardinal.

Apologists for Stanford and those liking this point-spread at home will site things like TCU is out of their element in this game. This is a week one matchup where they’re out of their wheelhouse and could be caught sleeping a little bit against an opponent who might not command a lot of respect. And after all, TCU took a big nosedive last season, with Stanford looking to get their first season in the ACC off to a fast start against a non-conference foe. You might also hear a lot about returning players for the Cardinal, particularly on defense. And while some growth could be projected, it’s still a lot of the same guys who were sliced and diced for most of the 2023 season, giving up gobs of points all year.

Can Texas Christian Rebound in 2024?

Going to 5-7 is a precipitous fall from where they were in ’22, but the Horned Frogs could be poised for a bounce-back season. They have 19 returning starters, and Sonny Dykes was prolific in the transfer portal, securing enough key talent to make forecasting a spike this season a not-so-lofty assessment. For the purposes of this contest, I’d imagine Sonny Dykes will remind them what happened last season in game one when another former Pac-12 team in Colorado upset the Horned Frogs as 20-point favorites.

The Horned Frogs are going to need a major boost on defense, especially their secondary. Bringing in new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos, who didn’t work out as a head coach, but should be able to get some better results out of this defense, could pay off. TCU has dynamite wide receivers, and we will see if Josh Hoover can become the man behind center for the Horned Frogs. They’re going to be looking to air it out against a Stanford team that wasn’t great in defending the pass last season.

What to Expect?

I think this depends on how many strides the Stanford offense made during the offseason. Troy Taylor is an offensively-oriented coach and his handiwork would be due to start paying off now. It starts with QB Ashton Daniels. Whether he has the line or backfield to lean upon is a definite issue, but if he can tap into the talent of a gifted receiver core, we should be seeing the Cardinal putting up more points this season, and what better place to start than against a TCU “D” facing a lot of questions after last year? When looking at both teams and what they are looking like as they enter the season, I’d expect a pretty fast-paced game with a lot of passing.

I think there are some questions surrounding Stanford, their recent form, and their horrible recent track-record at home. They can be better this season, but I think there is something more-bankable about the explosive-potential for TCU. The new Avalos-run TCU defense can do some good things in this game, but neither defense is great. When looking at offense, I see two teams trying to do the same thing, with the TCU passing game being the one that can deliver big plays more regularly. Hoover isn’t going to be a superstar, but the talent at receiver, along with Stanford’s issues in the pass-rush and the secondary, making this a potentially-long night for the home-win-starved Cardinal.

Take the Road Favorite

I look for TCU to make a statement and not be caught napping in game one like they were last season in what was an overall disaster. Until we see something different from Stanford, all optimism is just hopeful banter. And they should actually be a little better, but a defense that was torn apart against the more-capable offenses they faced last season might not be a ton better this season, and if that’s the case, the TCU air game should be good enough to cover the number in this one. I’ll lay the number and take Texas Christian.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the TCU Horned Frogs minus 9 points.