TCU vs. Baylor Pick: College Football Over/Under Prediction

A 64% H/C Play

This week’s pick:
TCU/Baylor Over

With no games qualifying for my top-performing systems in the NFL or college, I’m turning to one of my secondary handicapping methods, the H/C (Hot/Cold) trend reversal spot.
This is a play where both teams are trending for a total in one direction and I look for the pendulum to swing back the other way.
TCU/Baylor has the necessary number of required trends needed to qualify as an Under, and a record of 6-11 on H/C Unders tells me to take advantage of that 64% Fade.

The game also fits a subcategory I track using the two different methods I have for handicapping totals. When H/C says Under, and my other method says the game goes Over, the Under is 0-8.
So, Fade away!

I used this exact same H/C play in my homepage column two weeks back on the USC/Maryland game (if you check my post dated 10/17 in the PredictEm college football forum you’ll see a picture of the actual page from my log book with this play and it’s record; 4-7 at the time, now 6-11.)
The USC/Maryland game was a winner, and the play has gone 2-4 (67%) since then, continuing to be a solid Fade.
And I stick with what works until it doesn’t.

Looking at this Saturday late afternoon matchup, I see both teams with identical records on totals, 5-3 to the Over.
Baylor is scoring 33.1 PPG, and TCU averages 32.5, combining for an average of 65.6, just enough to get me over the number the books hung on this game.
The stats on the other side of the ball aren’t as desirable, the Bears D surrendering 26 PPG and the Horned Frogs giving up 28.

In recent play, Baylor’s last two games saw 66 and 94 points scored. Three of their last five surpassed the number on this game, with the two that didn’t missing by just two points and three points.

TCU’s games have gone Over the same – three of their last five.

TCU road games are averaging 63.5 PPG, but the number is skewered by a 20-point game versus Utah. Remove the Utah game, and TCU road games average 78 PPG (though that number is skewed by a 108-point game at SMU.)

Baylor home games average just 52 PPG, but that number is skewed by a total of six points combined from subdivision Tarleton State and Air Force (15 PPG avg.)

Yes, it’ll be tight getting to the Over, just like the USC/Maryland game was. I’m going to need 32 points from each team. I’m reasonably certain TCU will get me there as their strength in the passing game matches well against Baylor’s weakness against a passing attack.
But the Bears have the edge with their rushing game, so I’m going to need TCU to be ahead in the second half, forcing Baylor to forgo their strength in the clock-consuming run game and rely on passing. If that does happen, I can’t look for help from an INT – Bears QB Sawyer Robertson has given up just 4 in 193 attempts.

With a small spread of Baylor -3, there’s always the chance I can get OT to help me out, but hopefully, I won’t need it.

When to Buy Recommendation
The game opened at 63′, and it’s gone up a point at almost every house.
I don’t see it coming back down, I think late money will likely drive it even higher, but as I’m writing this my screen just lit up – our sponsor Bookmaker just dropped the line to 63, and another popular book just dropped to 64.
The 64′ is readily available so no sense jumping on it right now, may as well wait a little bit to see if other books start dropping it, too.
I’ll post the number I get in the forum after I buy in.

This week’s play:
Tcu/Baylor Ov (wait to buy)

Recap: 2-0
Record: 14-5

Review:
From last week’s article:

“I think “The asterisk play” is a stupid name.

I think having ANY name for plays is ridiculous.

But ya know what’s not stupid and ridiculous?

Winning.
Beating the books.
And all this play does is win.”

And last week, BOTH asterisk college plays won, and by more than double digits, as Notre Dame (-13) crushed Navy by 37 points and Fresno State (-5) beat up San Jose State by 23 points. Both plays were shared here at PredictEm, I gave out Notre Dame as my recommended play in my homepage article and shared the Fresno State pick in the forum (got a little conservative there and didn’t give it out as a recommended play, but happy to bank the Notre Dame game from earlier in the day.)
Updated asterisk spots:
WNBA: 2-6, 75% Fade
College football: 5-11, 68% Fade
NFL: 1-8, 88% Fade
and now
NBA: 1-5, 83% Fade

Combined: 9-30, a 77% Fade, from a data sample of almost 40 games, and almost all of them all shared here at PredictEm.

Unfortunately, nothing qualifies this week in NFL or college. Remember to check the forum for daily updates in case any NBA games qualify.

My other home page pick was the App State game Under. It won but doesn’t count as an NP Under as late line movement changed the parameters, and it no longer qualified.
The NP spot is 19-10 now, 65%.
None of those this week, either.
Drat, drat, and double drat.

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