TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Picks and Predictions: Duke vs. Ole Miss

Duke Blue Devils (9-3 SU, ATS 6-2-1)  vs Ole Miss Rebels (9-3 SU, ATS 6-4)
Date: 7:30 EST Thursday, January 2nd
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: Duke +12.5/MU -12.5
Money Line: Duke +367/MU  -501
Over/Under: 54.5

ESPN is handling the television broadcast as the Duke Blue Devils and Ole Miss Rebels face off in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Kick-off is set for 7:30 ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. Ole Miss is considered the home team, but the game is being played on a neutral site. The over/under line is at 54.5 points, and Ole Miss is favored by -12.5 points. Both teams enter the game with a 9-3 record for the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Duke Blue Devils and Ole Miss Rebels did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Duke Blue Devils have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread, the Ole Miss Rebels went 3-0. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 50 points per game.

Duke Blue Devils Recent Form:

Duke enters Week 1 against Ole Miss with a 9-3 record, going 4-0 at home and 3-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in four games this season, winning all four. As underdogs, they are 3-2. Their average scoring margin stands at +4.7 points per game.

Against the spread, the Blue Devils are 6-2-1, with a 3-1-1 record on the road and 3-1 at home. They’ve covered three out of four games as the favorite and are 3-1-1 ATS as the underdog.

Duke’s over/under record is 3-6, with their games averaging 49 points. This week’s line is set at 54.5 points, higher than nine of their games this season. Their average over/under line has been 49.3 points, and they’ve exceeded it by an average of 1.5 points.

Duke’s offense has been centered around their passing game, ranking 27th in passing attempts per game. They are 54th in scoring, with 26.8 points per game, and are 89th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1.

Maalik Murphy, Duke’s quarterback, has thrown for 2,933 yards and 26 touchdowns, but he has also thrown 12 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 90. Duke is 119th in rushing, averaging 99.7 yards per game.

Duke’s defense allowed just 17 points in their recent 23-17 win over Wake Forest, giving up 318 total yards. They held Wake Forest to 111 rushing yards on 43 attempts and allowed 207 passing yards.

For the season, Duke’s defense ranks 29th nationally, allowing 22.2 points per game. Opponents have averaged 150 rushing yards per game and 194.8 passing yards, with a 56.7% completion rate and a 73.6 passer rating, which is the 24th-lowest in the country.

Away Injury Report

Ole Miss Rebels Recent Form:

Ole Miss enters their Week 1 matchup against Duke with a 9-3 record. They’ve gone 5-1 at home and 3-1 on the road this season. The Rebels have been favored in nine of their 12 games, posting a 7-2 record as the favorite.

Against the spread, Ole Miss is 6-4, with a 3-1 mark on the road and 3-3 at home. They’ve covered the spread in five of their nine games as the favorite, and their average scoring margin this season is +23.6 points per game.

The over/under record for Ole Miss games is 1-9, with their contests averaging 51.4 points. The average over/under line has been 58.5 points, and this week’s line is set at 54.5 points.

Ole Miss has leaned on their passing game this season, ranking third nationally with 343.6 yards per game. Jaxson Dart has thrown for 3,875 yards, completing 68.6% of his passes, and has 25 touchdowns to six interceptions. He holds a passer rating of 119. Tre Harris leads the receiving corps with 1,030 yards and seven touchdowns on 60 catches.

Overall, Ole Miss is seventh in scoring, averaging 37.5 points per game, and they are 14th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10. On the ground, they average 178.3 rushing yards per game. Henry Parrish Jr. has rushed for 678 yards and ten touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry.

Ole Miss’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 4th nationally by allowing just 13.9 points per game. In their latest game, they gave up only 14 points to Mississippi State, holding them to 39 rushing yards on 30 attempts but allowing 291 passing yards while forcing two interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 230.3 passing yards per game against Ole Miss, completing 61.8% of their throws. However, Ole Miss’s run defense has been impressive, ranking 5th in the nation by allowing just 85.8 rushing yards per game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Duke has averaged 27 points per game while allowing 29. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Ole Miss has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 34 points per game while allowing 18. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• As the betting underdog, the Duke Blue Devils have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Ole Miss Rebels have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 against the spread.

Free Pick

If Duke is going to keep this one interesting, they are going to rely on their defense. Throughout the season, their defense has been their strength. The problem is they are facing one of the more explosive offenses in college football this season. It’s been a great season for Duke this year, but I see them being overwhelmed in this one. Look for Old Miss to dominate this matchup and cover at -12.5.

BAS Sportsbook -105 Odds!

BetAnySports is the perfect 5Dimes replacement, offering reduced juice with -105 odds on most markets. If you’re looking to get more value from your bets, this is the sportsbook for you. With the same great features you loved about 5Dimes, BetAnySports provides competitive lines, smooth navigation, and a wide range of betting options. Ready to step up your game? Join now and enjoy -105 odds… Read More