Tar Heels vs. Golden Gophers Point Spread Pick

North Carolina Tar Heels (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-0 SU, 0-0
ATS)

The North Carolina Tar Heels come to Huntington Bank Stadium on Thursday for a season-opening
showdown with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Tar Heels beat the Golden Gophers last season,
31-13, as part of their big 6-0 start that ended up at 8-5. They also lost a big part of that
victory last season, with QB Drake Maye now on the Patriots. The Golden Gophers, meanwhile, were
6-7 last season and look for better this season under 8th-year head coach PJ Fleck.

Changes for Both Teams

In Mack Brown’s 6th season at the helm for the Tar Heels, he brings in yet another quarterback
in 6’5″ Max Johnson, the former starter for LSU and Texas A&M. Johnson hasn’t really caught
fire since a really nice 2021 season at LSU before he transferred to A&M. We will soon see if
Johnson can bring this Tar Heels offense to life as well as his predecessor did, which is no
guarantee.

It might be the Golden Gophers who really need to get an upswing at the QB position, a big
culprit to their 18-point loss to the Tar Heels last season, where poor QB play bit them and did
so for most of the season with a pedestrian offense. The transfer of QB Max Brosmer offers
promise, as he was excellent, albeit with New Hampshire. We’ll see if it translates at these
higher levels. It’s a bit of an X-factor to this equation.

Setting the Scene for Minnesota

PJ Fleck wants to get this Golden Gophers season off running. The home-opener with everyone
wearing gold might be an off-putting place to play for a Tar Heels team that isn’t going to be in
the great north a lot this season. I’d expect a pumped-up home throng for the Golden Gophers as
hope is still alive. I’d look for Brosmer to be eased into action, relying on a really good young
back who delivered last season in Darius Taylor. We can’t be too sure about Brosmer, but they
expect his presence to provide an upgrade, which wouldn’t be too hard to do considering last
year’s offense. And they return their entire offensive line, making it so Brosmer is stepping
into a situation with some pieces around him that can produce.

Defensively, the Golden Gophers weren’t horrible last season, seeing that part of their team
carry them to a bowl win and a season almost at .500 despite near-disastrous results on offense
at times. The other side of the line of scrimmage is also manned by familiar faces, with most of
their defensive front returning. Last season, we saw this defense manhandled in key running
situations, with teams peeling off huge runs in the most inopportune moments, oftentimes on third
down. So maybe the returning production isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, as some widespread
improvement will need to be seen on both sides of the ball.

What to Expect from North Carolina

It might be wise to entertain some weather possibilities in Minneapolis that could affect
offensive approaches this week. It’s hot in Minnesota, but there’s some rain and thunderstorms
forecasted for Thursday. Running back Omarion Hampton, who might be poised for a huge season
after a 1500+-yard year, should be getting showcased big time in this game, running behind that
big offensive line. And whether the Minnesota defensive front has made strides is something that
will be gauged in short order on Thursday.

For UNC, the plan is going to be simple. Pound Omarion Hampton to the point where the
Minnesota defense is focused on the run, then allowing Max Johnson to take some shots down the
field. They’re solid at tight end with a few different options and their wide receiver package
should be pretty good, as well. Johnson might find himself working behind an O-line that is a bit
unproven heading into the new season and that could be trouble against a Minesota defense that
while flawed, can still do some things.

What to Look For

We might have a bit of a running battle here, with UNC flexing Hampton heavily while the
Golden Gophers go to work with Taylor. A lot of this could depend on where this Minnesota defense
is at. If we see the same group allowing big chunks of yardage on the ground as we saw last
season, it’s going to be a long day. If all the returning experience and some projected
improvement manifests, maybe they can hold their own and force some mistakes from Johnson.

It’s just that in a spot like this, you’d like to see a more-attacking pass-rushing defense to
challenge the new QB under center for the Tar Heels. Sure, they don’t have Mays anymore, a key
part of their offensive success last season. But against Minnesota, maybe aerial dominance won’t
even really be needed, as the run-game takes over, with Johnson taking to the air selectively and
to good effect.

Lay the Small Number

I think Johnson is stepping into a good situation with a great back and a slew of senior
ball-catchers he can lean on as he gets acclimated to the new North Carolina system. It’s a
little dangerous coming into Minneapolis with the prospect of weather and a packed house decked
out in gold, facing a Golden Gophers squad that usually comes into the season with a lot of
energy and optimism. I just think UNC is the better team with the far-higher ceiling and hope
that’s enough to resonate with a win on Thursday. I’ll take the North Carolina Tar Heels in this
one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus 1.5 points.