Friday Night Lights: Loot’s Expert Picks for Syracuse vs. UNLV

Syracuse Orange (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 6

Date/Time: Friday, October 4, 2024 at 9PM EDT

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: Fox Sports One

The Syracuse Orange make the trip to Allegiant Stadium on Friday for an ACC vs. Mountain West matchup with the unbeaten UNLV Rebels. This should be a good game, with both teams a combined 7-1 entering this Friday night battle. Despite some late-developing personnel issues last week, the Rebels were able to shake it off and absolutely hammer longtime conference tormentor Fresno State on Saturday, 59-14. They are again at home this week, awaiting Syracuse, who has a long road trip on the short week, coming off a get-right 42-14 win over Holy Cross, helping put the memory of their first loss the prior week behind them, a two-point loss to Stanford.

Food for Thought

It’s true that this is a daunting road trip for Syracuse, but it is still their first road trip of the season, and they should still be pretty fresh with their first road game not happening until early October. There’s not a ton to go on with the Orange in the young season, but they showed their quality this season already in a minor-upset win over Georgia Tech, and with former Ohio State starter Kyle McCord behind center, they represent a dangerous opponent that can lay it on thick aerially.

It’s just going to be difficult betting into a UNLV team that looks to be a real contender in the Mountain West this season. After seeing starting quarterback Matthew Sluka fly the coup over a fiscal matter, one would have been within reason to be a bit gloomy about their chances last week against a team that usually beats them. But not only did they not seem to lose much at the position, it seemed as if Hajj-Malik Williams was even better than Sluka, throwing for three TDs, while running in another one on 119 yards rushing. With that kind of production, this Rebels’ offense might actually be upgraded, though a one-game window can be misleading. They also saw their defense have a big say on the day, as they made life hell on the Fresno offense, registering four sacks and four picks in the big conference win.

Bad Time to Bet Against UNLV?

There’s nothing abundantly wrong with Syracuse, and they are dangerous with that passing game. Fresno’s Mikey Keene was over 300 against the Rebels last week, but with 14 points and a game-script where they were playing from behind likely swelled that number. Either way, it’s not like McCord and his big dogs like Trebor Pena, Jackson Meeks, Umari Hatcher, and Oronde Gadsden won’t be able to do damage in this spot. If they can avoid the big UNLV defensive splash plays, they could be OK, at least from an offensive standpoint. They still need that offensive line to deliver, as it was alarming to see them failing in spots against Holy Cross last week, in addition to some other troubling sequences this season.

For Syracuse, it’s still not that great of a spot—the long road-trip on the short week against a team riding a real crescendo and galvanized after overcoming such a key personnel loss last week. We’ve seen a stout and playmaking Vegas defense really rising up this season, both in two road games against Houston and Kansas, where they allowed only 27 combined points, in addition to how they derailed the Fresno State offense last week. They’re rushing the heck out of the passer and registering turnovers, with Jalen Catalon already with four interceptions on the season. Can McCord, in the top ten in passing nationally, do any better? He might, but what about the flip side of that coin?

Big Test for the UNLV

While showing their fangs last week, it’s a short window for the Rebels with the new QB. Williams looked to be the goods against Fresno, but he’s going against a defense that also has some playmaking ability, getting turnovers and also getting after the QB pretty well in spots. If the Rebels have been weak in spots, it’s been their rushing defense. While LeQuint Allen is a proven back in this Syracuse offense and can do damage, they’ve been more-aerially-inclined since the arrival of McCord. I’d imagine for the purposes of this game, they get Allen more involved. Syracuse can also be dicey against the run, something Williams and his backs can exploit on Friday.

Still, UNLV hasn’t faced the best air-attacks through four games and this one could take on a different light. McCord is one thing, but it’s the multitude of viable targets he has that could be spreading this UNLV secondary a little thinner than what they’re accustomed. But with all the changes UNLV has with the new quarterback, it’s not like Syracuse is totally cemented with all their new pieces, including a first-year head coach in Fran Brown and a new face behind center. This is a Syracuse team that has spent the last batch of season treading water, mostly around .500. And with UNLV, you have a team that was flat on its back for years, rising up with nine wins last season and now seeing some of their first real success ever as a program. They’re appearing in national polls and starting to forge a nice path of success where separating them from that momentum might not be easy.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

This might be a tough transition to make, where you used to take UNLV in an underdog role, and now they’re the ranked home favorite. Not every team ascends to that role when it’s the first time they’ve been put in that position. Those setting these odds aren’t short-changing the Rebels any longer, making value maybe a little harder to come by. I just sense that if they’re going to hit a wall, that’s something that might happen as they get deeper into conference play. To have it all start unraveling against a middling Syracuse team on a long trip on the short week at home seems to asking a little too much of the Orange. Syracuse is dangerous and in many ways an appealing underdog choice, but I just see UNLV as being a little too complete across most areas for Syracuse to really threaten in this spot. I see the Rebels getting to the finish line clearly ahead in this one for the big win and cover at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UNLV Rebels minus 6 points.