Syracuse at Pittsburgh Betting Analysis & Point Spread Prediction

Syracuse Orange (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Panthers (6-0, 5-1)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Thursday, October 24th, 2024, 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Syracuse +6/Pitt -6
Moneyline: Syracuse +185/Pitt -225
Total: 62.5

It’s the 80th edition of an old Eastern college football rivalry when Pitt and Syracuse meet for an ACC bout Thursday night in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are off to their best start since the Dan Marino days as they chase a berth in the ACC championship game. Meanwhile, the Orange are off to a 5-1 start in their first season under new head coach Fran Brown.

Pitt owned this rivalry for most of this century, but Syracuse pounded the Panthers last season at Yankee Stadium. How might Thursday night’s game play out?

The Line

The CFB Week 9 betting market opened Pitt at -3.5 for Thursday night, with an O/U of right around 61. Early betting action pushed the Panthers to -6. According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, the line for this game should be 5.5 points.

Syracuse-Pitt Betting Preview

The Orange reached 5-1 on the season with a 24-17 victory at North Carolina State two weeks ago. Syracuse then enjoyed last weekend off. The Orange, as one-point favorites at Raleigh, led 10-7 at the half, then scored the first two touchdowns of the second half to go up by 17, and held on from there. Syracuse only out-gained the Wolfpack by 13 yards, 424-411, but won the turnover battle 3-0, which saved them at least a couple of State field goals and resulted in three Orange touchdowns.

The ‘Cuse opened this season with wins over Ohio and Georgia Tech, then lost to Stanford on a field goal at the buzzer. The Orange then beat Holy Cross 42-14, followed by a wild 44-41 overtime win at UNLV, which was undefeated at the time.

Meanwhile, the Panthers remained perfect on the season with a 17-15 win over California two weeks ago. Pitt also had last weekend off. The Panthers, favored at -3.5, led 17-9 at the half but allowed Cal to get within two points early in the fourth quarter. A missed Cal field goal sealed the win for Pitt.

Despite being out-gained 335-277 and losing time of possession, Pitt’s defense came up big with six sacks, securing their unbeaten record.

Syracuse-Pitt Recent Rivalry

Pitt dominated this rivalry for years, winning 16 out of 18 meetings from 2005-2022. However, Syracuse flipped the script last season, beating the Panthers 28-13 at Yankee Stadium, thanks to a dominant wildcat offense that racked up 392 rushing yards.

By the Numbers

Syracuse is averaging 470 yards per game on offense, with 365 of those coming through the air. Defensively, they are allowing 356 yards per game, including 126 on the ground. The Orange have played what Sagarin ranks as the 86th-toughest schedule in the country.

Pitt is averaging 481 yards per game on offense, including 176 on the ground, while allowing 353 yards per game defensively. The Panthers have faced Sagarin’s No. 77-ranked schedule.

Totals Report

• Unders are 4-2 in Orange games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
• Totals are split 3-3 in Panthers games, which are averaging 64 points.
• Unders are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Pick

Both teams are getting excellent play from their quarterbacks, but both have some defensive vulnerabilities. Pitt’s ability to control the ground game and minimize turnovers could give them the edge in this matchup. Ultimately, we expect the Panthers to win this game on the ground and cover the spread. Take Pitt minus the points for Thursday night.

Zman’s ATS Pick: Take Pitt -6

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