Sun Bowl Pick: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame Analysis – 12/29/23

Oregon State Beavers (8-4 SU, ATS 5-6) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3 SU, ATS 7-3-1)

Date: 2:00 EST Friday, December 29th

Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX

TV: CBS

Point Spread: OSU +10.5/ND -10.5

Money Line: Oregon St. +327/N. Dame -437

Over/Under: 46.5

The Oregon State Beavers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish matchup in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX. The over/under for this matchup is currently 46.5, while Notre Dame is favored by -10.5.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

Oregon State and Notre Dame did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, Oregon State has a record of 2-1. Oregon State also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 70 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Oregon State Beavers Recent Form:

Oregon State’s overall record dropped to 8-4 after their most recent loss to Oregon. The Beavers lost the game by a score of 31-7.

Against the spread, Oregon State was not able to cover as 14.5-point underdogs. On the over/under, the line was 62 going into the game, resulting in the under hitting.

In the loss vs. Oregon, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei finished with a QB rating of 71.13 while completing 19 of 35 passes for 220 yards. He also ended the game with one touchdown.

Finishing the game with 38 yards on the ground, Damien Martinez led Oregon State in rushing against Oregon. However, he did not run for a touchdown in the game. In the passing game, Anthony Gould finished with a team-high 85 receiving yards while averaging 14.2 yards per reception.

On defense, Oregon State finished their game against Oregon by giving up a total of 363 yards. Oregon threw the ball 34 times for 239 vs. Oregon State. While on the ground, the Beavers gave up 124 rushing yards. The Beavers’ defense has given up 104.7 rushing yards per game this season, which is 196th. Opponents are recording an average of 235.4 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks come in with a passer rating of 85 when playing against Oregon State. In terms of points allowed, they currently sit 79th in NCAA rankings.

Away Injury Report

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recent Form:

Heading into this week’s matchup vs. Oregon State, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have an above .500 record of 9-3. This comes after taking down Stanford in their most recent game (56-23).

Going into the game, Notre Dame was favored by 25.5 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 79 points surpassed the over/under line of 49.5.

Quarterback Sam Hartman threw for two touchdowns in Notre Dame’s win over Stanford. Overall, he had a passer rating of 101.19 while completing 57.1% of his passes for 140 yards.

Audric Estimé led the ground attack for Notre Dame against Stanford. He accumulated 238 rushing yards and reached the endzone four times in 25 attempts. Jordan Faison emerged as the team’s top receiver, scoring one touchdown and making three receptions for 66 yards.

Defensively, Notre Dame allowed a total of 360 yards to Stanford. This includes giving up 144 yards allowed on the ground and 216 passing yards. Defensively, the Fighting Irish defense has come up with 27 sacks this season and are 1st in quarterback hurries. Overall, they are allowing 16.6 points per contest (53rd). Against the pass, they are 16th in the NCAA, having allowed 154.2 passing yards allowed per game. Notre Dame is giving up 129.9 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Oregon State’s ten most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 4-6 against the spread.
• Notre Dame’s ATS record at home (last ten) is 6-4.
• Looking back at the last five times Notre Dame went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 3-1-1.
• Oregon State’s record vs. the spread in their five most recent games as the favorite is 2-3.

Free Pick

For an ATS pick in this Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl matchup between Oregon State and Notre Dame, I like Fighting Irish to cover as the heavy -10.5 point favorites. Even though Oregon State has a good offense, I see Notre Dame being able to slow them down. In particular, the Fighting Irish should be able to make life difficult in the passing game for the Beavers. Bet your college bowl games for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!