Sun Bowl Pick: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame

The Oregon State Beavers battle the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Sun Bowl on the 29th. The Beavers won eight games this season, a good year by their standards, but not quite the follow-up to their ten-win season in 2022 they were hoping for. They look to end strongly against a Notre Dame team that was 9-3 this season, their last game being a 56-23 stomping of Stanford on November 25. Oregon State last played on November 24, falling to in-state rival Oregon, 31-7. With over a month since their last games, who should we get behind when these teams meet in El Paso?

Who is in Better Shape?

There have been a lot of moving pieces since these teams ended the season, but in terms of form, you’d have to go with Notre Dame. There was that one slip-up against Clemson, but they won four of their last five, and those betting on them this season delighted in their 9-3 ATS mark. We saw their offense in fine form, and though there were bumpy passages in the second half of their campaign, their defense generally improved over the course of the season. In their last nine games, they allowed more than 23 points just twice, not bad considering the strength of some of the offenses they had been playing.

Conversely, it looked like the Beavers kind of sagged at the finish line. For much of the season, it seemed like they were taking it to the next level. At 6-1 and their only loss being a FG defeat on the road against Washington State, they looked to be a conference contender. Then they lost to Arizona, had a too-close win against Colorado, and beat Stanford. But to close the season, they took a loss to Washington, before a 31-7 loss to Oregon to close the regular season in a defeat that was by far their worst and most lopsided of the season.

On one hand, there wasn’t much to take the Beavers to task for until the very end of the season when they ran into a good Oregon team. Their three defeats prior to that were by a total of eight points, including a 2-point loss to CFP participant Washington. But when you take that really sour final note of the season and now see that head coach Jonathan Smith is headed to Michigan State, it leaves the Beavers looking like a dicey proposition heading into this bowl spot. But alas, they are not the only ones facing shifts in the team’s chemistry, with Notre Dame starting QB Sam Hartman having departed, leaving sparsely-used Steve Angeli behind center. They lost top back Audric Estime and all his production. Throw in the offensive coordinator taking another job, top receivers transferring, and key offensive linemen opting out; what will we see from Notre Dame in this season-closing spot?

Breaking it Down

Again, the personnel aspect is a big one in this spot. We see Notre Dame missing all these key pieces, but could we have a little more faith with who is waiting in the wings? With the Beavers, you have a massive shakeup in the play-calling duties. Throw in a departing starting QB, their best receiver, and a bulk of that O-line, they have their own issues. The defensive side of the ball has also taken some hits. On the positive side, their backup QB is someone who has enjoyed success as a starter in Ben Gulbranson, who was a big part of the Beavers’ success last season and should fill in well for DJ Uiagalelei.

The negatives, however, may be too much for the Beavers to overcome. This offense is going to be compromised, going against a ND front that still has a lot of juice inside. Through the air, the now-handicapped Beavers’ air game will be going against one of the better secondary units in the nation, led by Xavier Watts. Combined with all the speed and talent the Irish have in the middle, this Beavers’ offense will be seeing one of its toughest matchups of the season without their key leadership and personnel.

We also now see what might be a depreciated Oregon State defense going against what should still be a talent-laden Notre Dame offense. Losing a projected high first-round left tackle and other pieces along that line can’t be a good thing, but there are guys who are waiting in the wings, along with those who have actually showed their fangs already who should be able to hold things together well. Losing one of the top backs in Estime isn’t good, either, but that cast of other backs they have is no joke. The issues at receiver and quarterback loom for the Irish, but the Beavers are facing some of the same things in this game.

Lay the Points on the Favorite

I don’t think the Irish are in an ideal spot here by any means. Angeli at quarterback throws a cloud of doubt over their offense, with the other missing pieces meaning you’re asking for a lot of unproven guys to deliver. It’s just that all this would mean a lot more if not for the personnel and coaching chasm on the other sideline. Combine that with the way the Beavers finished the season, and I just have a hard time envisioning a higher-end version of Oregon St. surfacing in El Paso on Friday. I’ll take Notre Dame.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus 6.5 points.