Sugar Bowl Prediction: CFP Semi Final Pick

The Texas Longhorns take on the Washington Huskies in the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year’s Day, also doubling as the Sugar Bowl. The winner of this gets to play for all the marbles in college football. It’s an appealing matchup, the 12-1 Longhorns looking for a return to glory and the unbeaten 13-0 Huskies standing in their way. The Huskies will have been off for exactly one month heading into this, last beating Oregon for the second time this season on December 1 with a 34-31 win in the final Pac-12 title game. Texas last played a day later on the second, annexing conference championship honors in a thorough 49-21 win over Oklahoma State. The Longhorns’ only loss of the season was to Oklahoma by 4 points, a loss they’ve since rebounded from by scoring seven straight wins, as both teams enter this with good momentum.

Conclusions to be Made on Their Respective Seasons

A lot will be read into Washington playing so many close games and how that will cost them against the nation’s ultra-elite teams. Texas certainly scored the more conclusive victories on the season, but they didn’t deliver every time out like Washington did. That’s not something that should be pushed aside. And before bombing out their two more recent Big 12 opponents, Texas was in a pretty close game with Iowa State, beat TCU by just a field goal, needed overtime to do the same to beat Kansas State, and had a one-score win over Houston.

In addition, running through the Big 12 with just one 3-point defeat while also beating fellow CFP team Alabama earlier in the year makes it so you can’t say much bad about the Longhorns’ season; maybe the Huskies are more battle-tempered heading into this game. While the closeness of the majority of their contests is used as ammo against the Huskies, doesn’t get through a bunch of tight games against tough conference teams result in anything good? Having to vanquish teams like Oregon State and Utah isn’t easy, nor is pinning multiple losses on an Oregon team that might just be the best squad not in the College Football Playoff.

Matchup Issues for Both

There were times, especially in the second half of the season, when we were seeing both the Texas and Washington defenses struggling. A big part of this game will come down to which defense can limit explosive plays. With Michael Penix. Jr. coming off a prolific aerial campaign, with 1000+-yard rusher Dillon Johnson, along with his two dynamic receivers in Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, it’s an offense that will test a Texas defense, maybe even more than teams like TCU and Kansas State did, both of whom nearly toppled the Longhorns. If Dillon Johnson can establish some sort of foothold in the run game and open up the pass, it’s hard to imagine this Texas defense fully curtailing Penix, Jr. and this offense. What Texas lacks in aerial defense, they can make it up against the run where they’re one of the best in the country. If they can make the Washington defense more one-dimensional so they more or less know what’s coming, it could be helpful. Whether they can stop it is another issue.

The Texas offense, however, offers some nice balance, and there is nothing abundantly special about the Washington defense from a stoutness perspective. Allowing their team to come out on the sunny side of so many close games could speak to their clutch late in games and their ability to get key stops in big situations. It also suggests issues they’ve had keeping teams from moving the ball late. Texas QB Quinn Ewers has a gaggle of talented receivers with difference-making players and matchup nightmares throughout this offense. Not having difference-making back Jonathon Brooks hurts, but they can patch up that loss with a lot of talent in the RB room. Washington will be taking a defense that has been allowing robust point-totals for the entire second half of the season against a balanced Texas attack with deft play-caller Steve Sarkisian pulling the strings.

Food for Thought

Texas seems to have the capacity to create more separation offensively. And it might be fair to say that their defense is perhaps a notch better. It’s just that Washington can’t really be looked at by what you see on paper, which doesn’t account for the simple yet underrated skill of being able to win. It’s still a daunting proposition for the Huskies. Sure, they can get on a roll with their talented receivers against a dicey Texas secondary. But those great secondaries Washington used to have aren’t there this season. While being able to hold down a physical and well-coached Oregon team that brings a lot of heat on defense, this might be a little steeper of a test in this battle.

Lay the Points on the Favorite

It’s not easy giving points to a team that specializes in manufacturing wins and steering things their way in the end. And it’s not like Washington isn’t tested, having gotten through a slew of tough games against good teams. I tend to favor Texas’ depth in this scenario and after years of hinting that they could be this kind of team, this is the year they finally did it and put it all together. And for that apple cart to be upset, I’d prefer a more bankable opposing defense than what the Huskies bring to this spot. Sure, you could end up tuning in and seeing another close game where you wish you had the Huskies and the points. They’re scary and always seem to surpass what exists on paper, their unsuspected rematch win over the Ducks once again serving notice of that. I still see the Longhorns getting some late separation, winning, and covering the spread in this semifinal game. I’m taking the Longhorns.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Texas Longhorns minus 4 points.