Stanford vs. San Jose State Free Pick for Week 14 Showdown

Stanford Cardinal (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 14
Date/Time: Friday, November 29, 2024 at 4PM EST
Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
TV: CBS

The Stanford Cardinal make the short trip to CEFCU Stadium for a showdown with the San Jose State Spartans on Friday. It’s a bit of a bizarre, if not geographically-sensible matchup. Once a nearly-annual pairing from the 60’s up to 2013, it’s been over a decade since these teams played. Stanford, now in the ACC, is 3-8, with two conference wins under their belts. Last week, they were pretty good, losing as two-touchdown favorites at Cal, 24-21. They are again on the road this week close to home, taking on a Spartans team that is looking to solidify and enhance their bowl-standing, as they search for their 7th win. They are coming off a bit of a rough patch, losing for the second straight time at home last week to UNLV, 27-16. They look to not end the season in a big swoon, now at home for what should be a high-motivation spot.

Good Spot for San Jose State?

The last two weeks were pretty rough for the Spartans, not covering the spread in either home-spot. At the same time, using their performances against the cream of the crop in the conference as a compass for how they’ll fare against Stanford might not be a great idea. It would have been nice to have seen more with the power they had been showing offensively, namely aerially. They got out to that fast start against Boise a few weeks ago and since then, we’ve been seeing too little of QB Walker Eget, along with his top receivers Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart. Between some other nice aerial weapons and the work of RB Floyd Chalk, IV., they seemed like dangerous propositions at home and just kind of folded. At home against a Stanford team, they could and maybe even should be able to snap back into close-to-peak shape.

While not terrible in their most-recent appearance against Cal last week, the Stanford defense has been readily-exploitable this season, with opposing offenses generally putting up lavish stats. You could maybe say that the weaknesses within the Cardinal “D” are more befitting to teams with explosive and multi-dimensional running games, but they are nothing special against the pass, either. And if anything, it only means there’s a better chance the Spartans’ offense can achieve some balance with Chalk peeling off runs, while Eget does his thing with his big one-two punch at wide receiver.

Silver Lining for Stanford?

If anything, they should be loose. It’s been a bad season, but in a strange way, they’re used to it. Recent seasons haven’t been so kind to Stanford, either, so it’s a no-pressure spot where guys can try to leave a positive last impression. It’s of some promise that they’re still out there trying and in the last four games, have failed to cover the spread just once. That’s not a team folding up its tent and going home. They haven’t had it easy, taking on four ranked teams in a new conference where they’re seeing new locales and different types of opponents. And through all that, they’re out here still working on things and even seeing some better offensive results. As massive 21-point dogs to Louisville a few weeks ago, they got the win, 38-35. Last week, as more than two touchdown underdogs to Cal, the Golden Bears needed a huge comeback and a big fourth quarter to win.

While you can blame things on the toughness of the opponent, San Jose’s defense hasn’t been tip-top lately. They’re still moderately-dangerous and can take advantage of Stanford QB Ashton Daniels if he becomes mistake-prone in this game, but the Stanford offense is showing some positive signs. They have some nice weapons aerially, like Elic Ayomanor and Emmett Mosley, V. It’s not great that Stanford doesn’t have that good back you could count on seeing in the past. They can’t run the ball well, and it’s not a great sign that their far-and-away leading rusher is Daniels. At the same time, we’re seeing Daniels becoming a real weapon, with his performance against Louisville being a high-water mark for the second-year Stanford starting quarterback. There’s no abundant reason why he can’t continue to shine against San Jose State.

Points to Consider

I can understand the perspective of a San Jose State backer this week. They were at 6-3, an upper mid-pack Mountain West team. Losing to the teams above them really did nothing. And now, looking to close out a decent season, they’re going to take it to a 3-win Stanford team at home. It’s not the worst storyline, but I think that’s based on Stanford’s poor overall record that was compiled in far more demanding circles. If we’re going to give San Jose a pass for dropping games to Boise State and UNLV, how about Stanford losing to Notre Dame, Clemson, SMU, and others while even beating a ranked team along the way?

Take the Points on the Road Dog

It is a bit unnerving that Stanford could regress back to their prior form on defense as the Spartans rediscover their stride offensively. I just think some of the results that each team has to justify their respective standings have created a bit of an illusion where you actually don’t have that much of a disparity. And that’s accounted for in large degree by the spread, with the Spartans receiving a typical even-Steven three point home point allowance. But close to home and having found a second wind, I see Stanford being in the mix for the win this week. I’ll take Stanford and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Stanford Cardinal plus 3 points.

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