Stanford vs. Notre Dame: College Football Week 7 Predictions

Stanford Cardinal (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 13th, 3:30 PM

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV: NBC

Point Spread: STAN +23.5 / ND -23.5 (Bet on games at -105! Not -110! Switch to BAS!)

Over/Under Total: 46.5

The coveted Crystal Legends Trophy is on the line Saturday in South Bend when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish play host to the Stanford Cardinal in what will be the 38th-ever meeting between the teams. Notre Dame holds a 23-14 all-time advantage and has won four of the last five matchups by an average of just over 26 points per game.

TALKING ABOUT PLAYOFFS

After Notre Dame’s disastrous loss to Northern Illinois to start September, many immediately wrote off their chances of getting into the college football playoffs. But with five teams in front of them in the rankings losing a week ago and an advantageous schedule ahead of them, the Irish essentially find themselves in control of their postseason destiny with the current expectation of being favored in all seven games they have remaining.

TIMBER

While Notre Dame has gotten their season back on track, the Cardinal and second-year head coach Troy Taylor are facing an uphill battle in their first ACC season. Stanford’s issues started before Taylor arrived, thanks to the sudden and steep downfall of the David Shaw era, but the current coach has yet to find a solution to their lack of winning ways as the team finds with just three wins in their last seventeen games and an 8-28 record in their last 36. They were able to get a victory against Syracuse in their initial conference matchup but have since suffered blowout losses to Clemson and Virginia and up next face four teams in their next five games that are coming off a bye.

PLAYING TO STRENGTH

Stanford’s two wins this season were against teams (FCS Cal Poly and the aforementioned Orangemen) that were unable to run the ball. That will not be the case this week as the Cardinal’s eleventh ranked run defense faces its stiffest test of the year going against the Irish ground duo of quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love. In all four matchups this season against FBS competition, Stanford has allowed the opposing quarterback to rush for a touchdown, and the real best bet of the game is to take Riley Leonard to continue that trend on Saturday. The Irish starter has offset his passing deficiencies with his play on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns this season, which includes a streak of at least one in four straight games. After beginning the year with zero touchdown passes in his first three games, Leonard has managed to throw three in his last two, and he should be able to tune up his air game even more this weekend against a Stanford passing defense that ranks 122nd in the country.

QB SHUFFLE

The quarterback position at Stanford remains in flux after they made a change at starter a week ago, switching from Ashton Daniels to Justin Lamson. Both have the ability to make plays on the ground, with Daniels having rushed for 250 yards through four games and Lamson having scored the only Cardinal rushing touchdowns so far this season with two. It was Daniels’ issues with turnovers, though, that was seemingly his early undoing, coming off back-to-back games with multiple interceptions, though it’s not like the offense under Lamson lit the world on fire against Virginia Tech a week ago. Stanford only put up seven points, all of which came on a trick play that the quarterback had next to nothing to do with. Lamson will find the going even tougher this week against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 9th in scoring and 19th in passing and total yards allowed per game.

ELIC-TRIC

The star of the Stanford offense is sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanor. Coming off a 1,000-yard freshman season, Ayomanor leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns despite the constant extra attention paid to him by opposing defenses. He and fellow wideout Ismael Cisse are the only Cardinal players with multiple receiving touchdowns, and both should receive the lion’s share of attention from Benjamin Morrison, Xavier Watts, and the rest of the Notre Dame pass defense as they hope to take advantage of Justin Lamson’s inexperience at quarterback and force mistakes by taking away his first and second reads.

FORD TOUGH

Ranking 73rd in the country may not sound great, but that is where the Cardinal rushing attack sits, and unfortunately for the team, that is the only part of the offense amongst passing, scoring, and total yards that ranks in the top 100. Micah Ford is the leader of the backfield and is skilled on the ground and through the air, and both he and backup Chris Davis should find the going a bit easier this week as it was just announced that the Irish defense lost their leader in sacks and tackles for loss, Boubacar Traore, for the season due to injury.

LOOKING FOR BALANCE

Notre Dame continues to look for more of an offensive balance, limited by Riley Leonard’s ability to consistently and accurately pass the ball down the field. Leonard himself helps to offset it with his previously mentioned ground skills, and he is far from alone with a strong backfield led by Jeremiyah Love and also featuring Jadarian Price, with all three having helped the team to a 19th-ranked rushing offense nationally. The weapons are there for Leonard through the air, most notably Beaux Collins and Jaden Greathouse, who are the only Irish wide receivers to have gotten into the end zone this season. Stanford’s defense has struggled all season to defend the pass and should provide Leonard a chance to fine-tune his passing skills and use the air game to open things up for Love and the ground game.

THE FINAL DECISION

Stanford has had a strong run of late when Vegas doesn’t back them, with 11 of the Cardinal’s past 14 victories coming in games that they were not favored to win. What’s even more impressive is that six of the upsets were as double-digit underdogs, including one just recently in 2022 at South Bend when getting 16 points against the Irish.

That’s all well and good, but that recent streak of success will not be added to on Saturday. Notre Dame’s two wins with Marcus Freeman as head coach against Stanford were both by over 30 points per game while also leading them to a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread in their last three games after a bye. With the extra week to prepare, I expect the Irish to post a big win and cover against the Cardinal on Saturday.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -23.5

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