South Florida vs. San Jose State Hawaii Bowl Predictions & Picks

South Florida Bulls (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Hawaii Bowl
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 22, 2024, at 8 PM EST
Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: ESPN

The South Florida Bulls take on the San Jose State Spartans in the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday. The Bulls, operating in the American Athletic Conference, were able to show some offensive push towards the end of the season, winning two of their last three to book a bowl spot this season. They make what amounts to a super long road trip to Honolulu for this spot, taking on the Mountain West’s San Jose State Spartans, winners of seven games this season. They were able to close out their regular season with a 34-31 win over Stanford, helping end a bit of a late-season slide to finish above .500. Can they get the jump on the Bulls in this one, or will USF manage to put up a big point-total in this spot?

Who is in a Better Spot?

Just on the surface, the geography of this is daunting for South Florida. San Jose State may not have played Hawaii this season, but they are in the same conference and 3000 miles closer, making one think they might be more-suited to this matchup than a Bulls team travelling through several time-zones. Other than that, both teams enter this spot with some similar conditions. They both played their last game in late November, with the same amount of time off leading into this spot. They both had similar amounts of success in 2024. And they’re a pair of teams that can do some damage on offense.

While San Jose State won one more game this season, I’m not sure the trajectory this season for the Bulls wasn’t more impressive. A 2-4 start to the season left them with a long road back to where they could even be thinking of getting into bowl consideration. Those losses were crushing—lopsided beatings where you struggled to see how the Bulls could possibly recover. But they closed with a nice 4-2 run, and even after falling flat in a bad season-ending loss to Rice, they still enter this game, having scored a combined 150 points in their last three games. Conversely, San Jose started the season at 4-1, sputtering more down the stretch. So, if momentum counts for anything, even with all this time off, the edge might go to South Florida.

Issues for South Florida

This figures to be a game that is heavy on offense. You have two teams here that operate at a high tempo. It’s not that South Florida isn’t suited to such a pace, as they like to press it on offense, but their offense is prone to giving up a lot of big plays. Their offense can hang in there in a shootout-type of game, but San Jose State figures to put a lot of pressure on this Bulls’ defense. USF head coach Alex Golesh, having just wrapped up his second season, has yet to defeat a team over .500, which the Spartans are. It’s not quite clear how intact the San Jose State offense will be. Star receiver Nick Nash is said to be in line to play, but whether he will be 100% is another issue. Still, with guys like Justin Lockhart, QB Walker Eget has other stuff at his disposal.

We keep hearing original South Florida starting QB Byrum Brown is practicing, but he has yet to return. Maybe the extra time off will be enough to get him back in action, but QB Bryce Archie has had some good moments in extended relief this season. He has several good backs who can do damage, led by Kelley Joiner, along with a deep pass-catching package, led by Sean Atkins. They are pretty deep and as we’ve seen at times to close the season, quite potent.

Questions

Are there any more personnel surprises that await? Betting on bowl games really forces you to do some research to ensure a key piece doesn’t suddenly become unavailable. It looks like San Jose State already took a few dings in that area, losing two starting cornerbacks, along with a backup QB who got a lot of work this season in Emmett Brown. We’re not sure about how good to go Nash will be. Will losing two of their best corners hurt them in what figures to be a shootout? For South Florida, is there a chance we see Brown, or should we just figure it’s going to be Archie? Can they show they can beat a capable team? Can they make this long road trip and deliver in this spot?

Take the Points

This is not an easy spot in which to get behind a South Florida team that is making a mega road trip. And it does seem like they do better against bad teams and sometimes get their clocks cleaned against the better ones they face. It’s just that even though this game could be a shootout or something close, South Florida’s offense should get some business done against a Spartans’ defense that might not be in top shape heading into this game. They lost some pieces they could ill afford to lose. In addition, their quarterback’s form seemed to depreciate over the course of the season. We’re not sure how big a factor Nash can be, and there are a lot of things not to like about a Spartans team that didn’t really get better as the season progressed, unlike their opponents. I’m going with South Florida. I’m taking the Bulls and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the South Florida Bulls plus 3 points.

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