South Florida Bulls vs. Tulane Green Wave Prediction & Picks

South Florida Bulls (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Tulane Green Wave (2-2, 3-1), 9/28/24

NCAA Football Week 5

When: Noon ET Saturday, Sept. 28

Where: Yulman Stadium

TV: ESPNU

American Athletic Conference contenders commence their conference slates when Tulane takes on South Florida on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans.

The Green Wave begin their quest for a third straight AAC championship game appearance, while the Bulls, a program in disarray not long ago, get a chance to prove themselves worthy of some heightened preseason expectations.

The Line

The CFB Week 5 betting market opened Tulane at -5.5 over South Florida, with an O/U of right around 64. Early betting action bumped the Wave to -6.5.

South Florida Betting Preview

The Bulls are 2-2 on the season after falling at home to Miami (Fla.) Saturday 50-15. USF, catching 16.5 points, actually led the Hurricanes 15-14 late into the second quarter. But an 80-yard Miami touchdown and a missed Bulls field goal opened the floodgate to a 36-0 ‘Canes run and a South Florida defeat.

USF got out-gained by Miami 592-365.

Two weeks ago, the Bulls won at Southern Miss 49-24, covering at -13. South Florida trailed that game 14-0 early and still cashed that ticket. Three weeks ago, the Bulls only trailed at Alabama 14-13 through three quarters, lost 42-16 but covered easily as 30-point dogs.

South Florida returned 18 starters this season from a team that finished 7-6 last season. Just a couple of seasons after going winless in AAC play, the Bulls are expected to contend for a berth in the conference championship game this year.

South Florida-Tulane Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Green Wave are also 2-2 on the season after winning at Louisiana Saturday 41-33. Tulane, favored by one point, spotted the Cajuns the first seven points of the game but led 17-13 at the half. The Wave then returned the second-half kickoff for a touchdown to go up by two scores and held on from there.

Tulane actually got out-gained by Louisiana 413-355 but ran the ball for 272 yards and also scored on a pick-6.

Two weeks ago, the Wave lost at Oklahoma 34-19, although that game wasn’t quite as close as that score might indicate. They still came up short of ATS at +13. Three weeks ago, Tulane led Kansas State in the fourth quarter 27-20, lost 34-27, but covered at +9.

The Green Wave only returned ten starters this season from a team that played 11-3 last season but also brought in several starting transfers from elsewhere. Tulane made the AAC championship game each of the last two seasons, winning in 2022, losing last year, and it’s expected to contend again this year. The Wave are also playing against a wins O/U of 7.5.

Tulane Recent History

The Green Wave are 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS all-time against the Bulls, all games played since 2017. Most recently, two seasons ago, Tulane won at Tampa 45-31 and covered at -12.

The Wave finished 12-2 that season and No. 9 in the polls, while USF finished 1-11. But these programs are a little closer now.

College Football Betting Trends

• South Florida is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.
• Tulane is 3-5 ATS in its last eight home games.

Totals Report

• Unders are 2-1-1 in USF games this season, averaging 62 total points.
• Overs are 3-1 in Tulane games, which are averaging 60 points.

Free College Football Pick

We give South Florida our handicapping check-mark at the QB spot and with the better running game while Tulane owns the better defense. Also, USF played Miami tough for a solid half and Alabama for three quarters, while the Green Wave didn’t impress us that much against Oklahoma. We won’t call for the outright upset here – Tulane, with the better team, should win this game SU – but we are betting on the Bulls, plus the points.