College Football Bowl Picks: South Carolina vs. Illinois Best Bet & Expert Analysis

The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Pick

South Carolina vs Illinois

On New Year’s Eve, I’m riding the . . . . well, let’s use “South Carolina” instead of the team’s nickname.

Before I get to the pick and reasons for it, I want to share some other handicapping information.
In my previous column, I detailed my Bowl systems (I hate that word) and gave their records and a pick from one of them.
Today, I’m detailing the Bowl records for some of the plays I used during the regular season here at PredictEm.

It’s important to note – what worked during the regular season may not work in the Bowls.

For college football this year, I used two different handicapping methods to try and find Wrong Favorites to play on or against (WF1, WF2.)
For Bowls I have a third (WFNP.)

Here are the Bowl records:

WFNP: 16-7, 69%, 3 years of data.

WF1: 22-10, 67%, 2 years of data.

WF2: 19-10, 65%, 2 years of data. (In my end of year article on college football I think I had WFNP at 14-5. Updating my charts, I corrected it to 16-7.)

Will these work again this year?
Hell if I know, but with all them coming in at better than 65% I will, as always, stick with what works until it doesn’t.

Before I give my next pick, here’s some info for any handicappers out there who might be looking at betting on Flip-Flop Favs in this year’s Bowl games.
What’s a Flip-Flop Fav?
It’s a stat that a lot of sports betters talk about and try to apply reasoning to when doing their handicapping – a game where the team that opened as the Fav becomes the Dog.

Bettors have different opinions as to what’s behind the line moves and where the money’s coming from. And often they assume it’s smart money bet by sharps and wise guys.
At the sports book in Vegas, we called them Flip-Flop Favs. Parlay cards had to be submitted to the print shop by Tuesday morning so the type could be set. Before the final printing, I called them with any line changes that needed to be made on the cards. Some of these line changes made an opening favorite become the ‘Dog, and the print shop had to switch which side of the card the team names were on.
Hence, Flip-Flop Favs.

For those of you interested in how these teams perform in Bowl games, here’s some recent data to factor into your handicapping.

Two years ago:

Washington State opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, lost ATS.

UCF opened as the Fav, closed as the dog, lost ATS.

BYU opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

Last year:

Ohio opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

W Kentucky open as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

Toledo opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

If supposedly “smart money” is moving the lines, then the smart money ain’t too bright as the original Favs went 4-2 ATS.

On this year’s menu we have:

West Virginia opened -1′, now +6

Iowa State opened – 1, now +3′

Arkansas opened -2′, shops are split, some have Ark – 1 now, others have Ark +1. Late money will determine the final number.

And three days after I started writing this article and gathered the information above, we now have a fourth game that qualifies:
UNLV opened +4′. They’re now the Fav at -1.

UNLV is also a pick I gave out last week in the forum when they were still at +4′.
I love the early buy at the much better number but I’m not crazy about the fact that new Favs are just 2-4 ATS in the last two years.

By the time you read this the West Virginia/Memphis game will likely have been played and we’ll have an idea of how these plays are going to work out this year. Maybe.

For today’s pick I’m backing South Carolina on New Year’s Eve vs Illinois.
Here are my reasons:
They have identical SU records at 9-3.
They have similar ATS too, SC 9-3, Illinois 8-3-1.
But SOS (Strength of Schedule) is where you start to see some separation between the two teams.
Massey has SC at 12, Illinois at 52.
Sagarin has SC at 17, Illinois at 40.

Is that enough of a differential to justify a more-than-a-TD spread?
If I knew the answer to that I’d have more money on the play.
But aside from the stats above, I also have this:
Bowl System #2:
“When a team has the better number in all six of the categories I rate the record is 18 – 13, 58%, 17 years of data.”
And like I always say, anything over 58% is good enough to get my money.

Only one game qualifies this year, 9-3 South Carolina vs 9-3 Illinois.
And I’m riding South Carolina.

Illinois backers could say, “Of the Illini’s three losses, TWO came against top 10 teams!”

To which I would reply, “Yes, but the Illini is a stupid name for a team.”

More to the point I would add, “Yes, they lost by 14 points to #9 Penn State and 29 points to #1 Oregon, both of which are more than the points I need with the -9′ I’m laying with South Carolina.”

The game is being played in Florida, neutrual field.
Illinois was 2-2 away from home.
SC was 4-1, with the sole loss at ‘Bama by two points.
One of the four wins came against #12 Clemson, not too shabby. The others were by 25 points over Kentucky, 26 over Oklahoma, and 21 over Vandy.
Again, not too shabby and all by 21 or more points, and more than the -9’ I need with SC.

With South Carolina, like Mississippi, the question is how will they react to being in a lesser Bowl and not the playoffs they feel they deserve to be in? Will they be flat and could care less or motivated to prove they should have been included?

Carolina and coach Shane Beamer won the Mayo Bowl in 2021, 38-21.
In 2022, they lost to #21 Notre Dame.
They didn’t have a Bowl last year.

Illinois and coach Bret Bielema lost the Reliaquest Bowl in 2022 and didn’t play in a Bowl in 2023.

Also in favor of laying the points with South Carolina is this – I saw where “experts” at both ESPN and Sports Illustrated say the Illini will cover the spread.
Reason enough for me to go the other way.

The line opened SC – 11, it’s down to -9′ and I don’t think it’ll get much better so I bought it today.

S Car -9′

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