South Alabama vs. Arkansas St. Free Pick ATS – Jaguars on the Prowl

South Alabama Jaguars (2-3 SU, ATS 1-3)  vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2 SU, ATS 1-2)

Date: 7:00 EST Saturday, October 5th

Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: USA -3/ASU +3

Money Line: USA -153/ASU  +128

Over/Under: 62.5

ESPN+ will be covering the South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves matchup, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro. The South Alabama Jaguars are favored by -3 points, with the over/under line currently at 62.5 points. The Jaguars come in with a 2-3 record, while the Red Wolves are also 2-2 on the season.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the South Alabama Jaguars and Arkansas State Red Wolves did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have the leg up at 2-1. The Arkansas State Red Wolves also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 65 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

South Alabama Jaguars Recent Form:

South Alabama enters Week 6 with a 2-3 record, ranked 68th in our CFB power rankings. They have an 87% chance of being bowl-eligible, according to projections. So far, they are 1-2 on the road and 0-1 at home this season.

The Jaguars have a +11.6 average scoring margin but are 1-3 against the spread. They’ve been favored in two games this season, going 0-2 ATS as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 62.5 points. South Alabama’s games have averaged 69.6 points, with their over/under record at 1-3 and an average line of 61.2 points.

South Alabama’s offense averages 40.6 points per game, placing them 18th in the nation heading into week 6. They are also 18th in rushing, with 212.6 yards per game. Fluff Bothwell has rushed for 376 yards, averaging 8 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns. The Jaguars are ranked 33rd in our offensive power rankings.

Gio Lopez leads the passing attack with 1,014 yards and ten touchdowns, and he has yet to throw an interception. He has a passer rating of 121 and has completed 64% of his passes. Jamaal Pritchett has 29 receptions for 394 yards and four touchdowns.

South Alabama’s defense will look to bounce back after a tough outing against LSU, where they allowed 42 points and 667 total yards. The Jaguars gave up 430 passing yards and 237 rushing yards, though they did manage to force two interceptions.

On the season, South Alabama is allowing 29 points per game. Opponents are averaging 149.8 rushing yards per game on 30.6 carries, while quarterbacks have posted a 62.3% completion rate and 303.4 passing yards per game against the Jaguars.

Away Injury Report

Arkansas State Red Wolves Recent Form:

Arkansas State enters Week 6 with a 2-2 record, facing South Alabama at home. They are ranked 106th in our power rankings but have a 47.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible this season.

The Red Wolves are 1-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in one game, going 1-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -12 points, and they are 1-2 against the spread.

This week’s over/under line is 62.5 points. Arkansas State’s games have averaged 55.5 points, with an average over/under line of 55.2 points this season.

Arkansas State’s offense has been underwhelming heading into week 6, ranking 104th in our offensive power rankings and averaging 21.8 points per game, placing them 74th nationally. Their rushing attack has struggled, with just 111.5 yards per game, ranking 112th. Leading rusher Zak Wallace has 134 yards, averaging 3 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns.

Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 780 yards, with the team ranking 39th in passing attempts per game. However, Raynor has a passer rating of 63, with three touchdowns and five interceptions, completing 53.9% of his passes. Arkansas State ranks 112th nationally in passer rating. Corey Rucker leads the receiving corps with 265 yards and two touchdowns.

Arkansas State’s defense struggled in their recent game against Iowa State, allowing 52 points in a 52-7 loss. They gave up 393 total yards, including 240 rushing yards and 153 passing yards.

On the season, Arkansas State is allowing 33.8 points per game. Opponents are averaging 234 rushing yards per game, while quarterbacks have posted a 61.6% completion rate and 195.8 passing yards per game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the South Alabama Jaguars offense has averaged 36 points per game while allowing an average of 29. South Alabama posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-3 ATS.
• In their last ten games at home, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have a straight-up record of 2-8 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 18 points per game in these contests.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have a record of 4-6. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
• As the betting favorite, the South Alabama Jaguars have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. South Alabama posted a straight-up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Free Pick

Even though both teams come into this one with two wins on their resume, South Alabama is the better team. The oddsmakers are giving Arkansas State a slight boost, given that they are at home. However, I don’t see that making much of a difference in this one, I like South Alabama to win and cover as the favorites.