SMU vs. Pitt Predictions: CFB Picks & Betting Analysis

Pittsburgh Panthers (7-0 SU, ATS 5-1)  vs SMU Mustangs (7-1 SU, ATS 4-2)

Date: 8:00 EST Saturday, November 2nd

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: Pit +7.5/SMU -7.5

Money Line: Pitt +235/Southern Methodist  -304

Over/Under: 59

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SMU is the -7.5 point favorite as they host the Pittsburgh Panthers in a week 10 college football matchup. The game is set for 8:00 ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas and will be broadcast on ACCN. Both teams come in with just one loss, as Pittsburgh is 7-0 and SMU is 7-1 this season. The over/under line is currently at 59 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Pittsburgh Panthers and SMU Mustangs did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Pittsburgh Panthers have a record of 3-0. The Pittsburgh Panthers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 64 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Pittsburgh Panthers Recent Form:

At 7-0, Pittsburgh is a lock for bowl eligibility, but they have just a 2.8% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. They are ranked 32nd in our power rankings and hold the 20th-best odds of making the CFB playoff at 20.3%.

Pittsburgh has gone 4-0 at home and 2-0 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in four games, going 4-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +18.9, and they are 5-1 against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is 59 points. Pittsburgh’s games have averaged 62.9 points, with their over/under record at 2-4. Their average over/under line has been 60.4 points, with an average margin of -2.1 points.

Heading into week 10, Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 40.9 points per game, ranking 6th in the nation. Quarterback Eli Holstein has thrown for 1,808 yards with a passer rating of 107, leading the Panthers to 39th in our offensive power rankings. Holstein has completed 64% of his passes, throwing 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Pittsburgh ranks 53rd in passing attempts, averaging 282.7 yards per game. They are 73rd in third-down conversions, with a 38.8% success rate. Desmond Reid leads the rushing attack with 541 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Konata Mumpfield has 473 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked 25th nationally, allowing 22 points per game. They excel against the run, ranking 12th in the country by giving up just 96.7 rushing yards per game.

In their recent game against Syracuse, Pittsburgh allowed only 13 points and limited the Orange to 6 rushing yards. Syracuse threw the ball 64 times, accumulating 321 passing yards, but Pittsburgh’s defense also forced five interceptions.

Away Injury Report

SMU Mustangs Recent Form:

SMU enters Week 10 with a 7-1 record, ranked 16th in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 20.5% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. SMU also holds the 17th-best odds of making the CFB playoff at 29.2%.

The Mustangs have a +17.8 average scoring margin this season and are 4-2 against the spread. They’ve been favored in four games, going 2-2 ATS as the favorite and 2-0 as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is set at 59 points. SMU’s games have averaged 60.5 points, with their average over/under line at 53.4 points. Their over/under record stands at 3-3 for the season.

SMU’s offense is averaging 39.1 points per game, ranking 14th in the nation, and they are 38th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10. Their rushing game is the focal point, with 40.9 attempts per game, placing them 10th nationally, and they are 19th in rushing yards, averaging 208.9 yards per game.

Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 742 yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 1,594 yards, with ten touchdowns and five interceptions, and he has a passer rating of 101.

SMU’s defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 10th nationally by allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Duke, they held the Blue Devils to 98 rushing yards on 29 attempts. However, the secondary has struggled, giving up 295 passing yards and three touchdowns in that game, contributing to their 120th ranking in passing yards allowed at 238.6 yards per game.

Despite the high yardage, opposing quarterbacks have completed just 52.5% of their passes against SMU, the 11th-lowest completion rate in the country. The Mustangs have also allowed a passer rating of 73.1, which ranks 27th nationally. Overall, SMU is giving up 21.4 points per game, placing them 39th in the nation.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Pittsburgh Panthers have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 22 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last ten home games, SMU has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 9-1 while averaging 33 points per game.
• The last ten games that Pittsburgh was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 4-6 straight up.
• The SMU Mustangs have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Free Pick

The way I see this one, Pittsburgh is much closer to SMU than the spread of 7.5 indicates. The Panthers might have moments where they struggle with the ball vs. SMU, but I see their defense helping them hang around and giving them a chance at the end. I’m taking Pitt at +7.5 to cover on Saturday in Dallas.

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