SMU vs. Penn State CFP: The Zman’s Pick Against the Spread

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions, 12/21/24
When: noon ET Saturday, Dec. 21
Where: Beaver Stadium
TV: TNT

Point spread: SMU +8.5/Penn St. -8.5
Money line: SMU +260/Penn St. -320
Over/under: 54

 
Power 4 runner-ups meet for an intriguing College Football Playoff first-round bout when Penn State hosts SMU Saturday afternoon at Happy Valley.
 
The Mustangs reached the ACC championship game a couple weeks ago but lost a crazy one to Clemson. The Nittany Lions reached the Big 10 championship game but lost a high-scoring game to Oregon.
 
Nonetheless, both these teams did enough during the regular season to receive their first CFP invites.
 
The spread on this game sits between two key numbers; will that play a part in our free CFP betting pick?
 

The Line

The CFB betting market opened Penn State at -8.5 over SMU, with an O/U of right around 53.5. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

According to Sagarin’s ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should only be 6.5 points.

From five days out the forecast for Saturday at State College calls for mostly cloudy with temps in the high 20’s.

SMU Betting Preview

The Mustangs opened this season, its first as a member of the ACC, expecting to contend for the conference championship. And that’s just what they did. Southern Methodist started 2-0, then lost a game to BYU. But the ‘Stangs then won their next nine in a row, including an “upset” at Louisville, a tough one in overtime at Duke, and several blow-outs, to finish 8-0 in ACC play.

SMU sat at No. 8 in the CFP standings heading into the ACC championship game but lost a thriller to Clemson 34-31.

Still, their regular-season resume and a rally in that ACC title tilt kept the Mustangs within the CFP top 10, which earned them a spot in this 12-team playoff.

Southern Methodist was favored by three points for that ACC championship game but trailed 31-14 through three quarters. The ‘Stangs then rallied to tie the game with just 16 seconds left but gave up a long kick-off return, which led to a long Tigers field goal at the buzzer.

So SMU’s two losses this season came by a total of six points.

Penn State Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile the Nittany Lions also opened this season with hopes of reaching their conference championship game and they also achieved that goal. Penn State started 7-0, albeit against a very mediocre slate of opponents, then got beat by Ohio State 20-13. The Lions then won their last four games, three in blow-out fashion, and with a little help from elsewhere – thank you, Michigan – claimed a spot in the Big 10 championship game.
 
Penn State was catching three points against Oregon for that conference title game but just couldn’t stop the Ducks and lost 45-37.
 
The Lions entered that game as the No. 3 team in the CFP, and the loss only cost them one spot. But they’re playing Saturday while Oregon is enjoying a bye.
 
Penn State fell down to the Ducks 28-10 in the second quarter, fought back to within one score late, and got the ball back before an interception ruined the rally.
 
The Lions two losses this season came by a total of 15 points, against two pretty good teams.
 
These two storied programs last met back in 1978, a 26-21 Penn State home victory.

College Football Betting Trends

• Penn State is 5-13 SU, 7-11 ATS in its last 18 games vs. ranked opponents.
• SMU is 3-2 in both SU and ATS in its last five games vs. ranked opponents.

By the Numbers

 
SMU averaged 443 YPG of total offense this season, 176 on the ground. Defensively, the Mustangs limited foes to 326 YPG, 93 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranked as the 61st-toughest schedule in the country.
 
Penn State averaged 449 YPG on offense, 202 rushing, and held opponents to 282 YPG, 104 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 44 schedule.
 

Totals Report

 
The overs played 8-5 in Mustangs games this season, which averaged 59 total points.
 
The unders played 7-6 in Nittany Lions games, which averaged 50 points.
 

Free College Football Playoff Pick

 
We expect Penn State to win the ground battle in this game, which is a great start toward winning on the scoreboard. However, the bug with the Nittany Lions over recent seasons is their underperformance against good teams/ranked opponents. And they’ve got one of those here. Meanwhile, SMU played its toughest opponent this season, Clemson, to the wire and might well relish playing the underdog role Saturday. We won’t call for the outright upset, but we like the Mustangs plus the points.

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