SMU vs. Duke: Predictions & Total Pick | Week 9

SMU Mustangs (6-1 SU, ATS 4-2)  vs Duke Blue Devils (6-1 SU, ATS 3-1-1)

Date: 8:00 EST Saturday, October 26th

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: SMU -11/Duke +11 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 instead of -110? Find this killer offer at Betanysports Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Southern Methodist -422/Dukies  +326

Over/Under: 48.5

At 8:00 ET, this SMU Mustangs vs. Duke Blue Devils matchup will be played at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. The game is being televised on ACCN, and SMU comes in as the -11-point favorite on the road. Both teams are 6-1 on the season, and the over/under line is currently 48.5 points. The money line odds are -422 for SMU and +326 for Duke.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The SMU Mustangs and Duke Blue Devils did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the SMU Mustangs have a record of 2-1. The SMU Mustangs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-0-1. These games averaged a combined total of 57 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 0-3.

SMU Mustangs Recent Form:

SMU enters Week 9 with a 6-1 record, ranked 16th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 23.5% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. SMU also holds the 17th-best odds to make the CFB playoff at 32.3%.

The Mustangs are 3-0 on the road and 2-1 at home this season. They’ve been favored in four games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +20.1 points, and they have a 4-2 record against the spread.

SMU’s over/under record is 3-3, with their games averaging 61.3 points. Their average over/under line is 54.1 points, and this week’s line is set at 48.5 points.

SMU’s offense is averaging 40.7 points per game, ranking 11th in the nation. They are 21st in rushing, with 208.6 yards per game on 39.6 attempts. Brashard Smith leads the ground attack with 625 yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry.

Kevin Jennings has thrown for 1,336 yards, completing 66% of his passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. SMU ranks 21st in passer rating and third-down conversions, converting 45.7% of their attempts. Jennings has a passer rating of 109. Jake Bailey leads the receivers with 260 yards and one touchdown.

SMU’s defense is coming off a strong performance against Stanford, allowing just 10 points. They held Stanford to 33 rushing yards on 35 attempts and forced two interceptions, giving up only 206 total yards.

On the season, SMU ranks 31st nationally, allowing 20.6 points per game. They are 9th in the country in rushing defense, giving up just 89.1 yards per game, and have held opposing quarterbacks to a 52% completion rate, the 10th-lowest in the nation.

Away Injury Report

Duke Blue Devils Recent Form:

Duke enters Week 9 against SMU with a 6-1 record, and they are 3-0 at home this season. They are projected to be bowl-eligible but have just a 0.2% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast, according to projections. Duke is ranked 64th in our power rankings.

The Blue Devils have a +8.6 average scoring margin and are 3-1-1 against the spread. They’ve been favored in three games, going 2-1 ATS as the favorite.

Duke’s over/under record is 1-4, with their games averaging 43.1 points. This week’s line is 48.5 points, slightly above their average line of 47.8 points.

Duke’s offense has been underwhelming this season, averaging just 25.9 points per game, placing them 66th in the nation. They rank 104th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 9. Their third-down conversion rate is a mere 26.8%, ranking 107th, and they are 100th in rushing, averaging 116.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Maalik Murphy has thrown for 1,501 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 89. Duke is 34th in passing attempts, averaging 33.3 per game. Star Thomas leads the rushing attack with 616 yards, while Jordan Moore has 453 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Duke’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 17th nationally by allowing just 17.3 points per game. In their recent game against Florida State, they gave up only 16 points and forced two interceptions. The defense allowed 291 total yards, including 162 rushing yards on 40 attempts and 129 passing yards.

Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 67.2 against Duke, averaging 153.6 passing yards per game, the 11th-lowest in the country. Duke’s defense has faced 39.7 rushing attempts per game, allowing an average of 153.4 rushing yards.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the SMU Mustangs offense has averaged 32 points per game while allowing an average of 20. SMU posted an overall record of 8-2 while going 5-5 ATS.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Duke has an ATS record of 5-4-1 while averaging 28 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• Duke has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the SMU Mustangs have gone 5-5 vs. the spread. Their overall record in these games was 8-2.

Free Pick

For Saturday’s SMU vs Duke matchup, I’m staying away from the point spread and am instead looking at the over/under line, as I think this line is sitting too high. I see both defenses putting the clamps down, and I see this ending up as a much lower-scoring game than expected. I’m going with the under at 48.5 points.

Note: Make sure you’re wagering at the best betting sites on the web! Not all bookies are created equal!