SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction – Can SMU Cover the 24-Point Spread?

SMU Mustangs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

The SMU Mustangs come to Reno for a season-opening showdown with the Nevada Wolf Pack. The Mustangs are coming off a big season under head coach Rhett Lashlee, winning more games than they have since 1982 with an 11-3 season. They now go from the American Athletic Conference to the ACC. Things, however, haven’t been going so great for Nevada after they saw a mini-surge earlier in the decade. They are now coming off consecutive 2-10 seasons, working under first-year head coach Jeff Choate.

Tricky Opener for SMU

There are some variables at play with the Mustangs entering a tougher conference this season, but first, having to orient themselves west to the dry warmth and altitude of Reno, which can be an off-putting place to play, especially for unfamiliar non-Mountain West teams. That built-in perk hasn’t been much help for the Wolf Pack, with a total of two wins in this stadium since November of 2021. Taking it a step further, since game three of the ’22 season, two straight wins in October last season are their only triumphs. It’s a program in a fair degree of trouble, hence the hefty point-allowance. Still, it’s a big number for SMU to cover against a team with whom they have no real connection in a weird setting to open the season.

Things to Like About the Mustangs This Week

Without going too much into the past, we’ve seen SMU under Lashlee generally stick it to underwhelming opposition like Nevada. SMU will have a lot of questions to answer as they try to see if what they’ve been doing with great success in the AAC translates to the ACC, but that analysis comes down the road with a pair of cupcakes to open the season with Nevada this week and Houston Baptist to follow.

There are issues that could come up for SMU to bite them, namely a secondary facing a lot of moving pieces and newness. But that’s not likely to be tested by the likes of the Nevada passing game. Despite operating a bit under the radar, SMU is really a complete team with a lot of things to like—a good running game, talented receivers, and a really solid front seven on defense. Aerially, Preston Stone and his receivers could form to become one of the better passing offenses—even in the more difficult ACC.

I think the problem for those taking an optimistic view of Nevada and that enticing point-allowance is that their defense could be in dire straits this season. A group that was already struggling mightily to field a capable unit now lost two of their better contributors, leaving one to wonder what they can deliver this season. SMU has been spending the better part of the last few seasons putting up points in bunches and not letting off the gas much when they have their foot on an opponent’s throat.

Angles for a Nevada Cover

Taking losses and suffering is nothing new for Nevada the last few seasons. But they can have this vague sort of doggedness in them. The losses keep piling, but it’s not always a romp. And at home the last few seasons, there have only been a small handful of times where they get manhandled and run off the field. Last season, for example, they opened the season with a 50+-point home-loss to USC and ended with a bad loss at home to Wyoming, but in the middle of all that, laying big numbers against the Wolf Pack wasn’t really paying off.

The Case for SMU

The random off-week of offering some better-than-forecasted resistance, however, is some pretty slim pickings upon which to base a pick. Nevada has a defense that will unlikely keep SMU from throwing a pretty big point-total up there. It might not be long before the Wolf Pack have to abandon the strategy with which they enter this game, which is likely to run and slow things down. I see the Mustangs opening quickly, as their superior offensive firepower starts making a dent in short order.

With Jordan Hudson coming over to give Stone another aerial piece, I see an SMU offense maybe looking down the field a little more this season. They have a lot of offensive talent in the air, and the sheer talent of their backfield behind a line returning almost everyone should make them pretty tough. And even if things start getting out of hand, the idea of Nevada slipping in late for a backdoor cover becomes more-dicey with SMU looking to use that time to bring along QB Kevin Jennings. So, Nevada is going to need to withstand four quarters of this offense—no easy task for a defense that will struggle to compete even in the MWC.

Lay the Number

Season openers can be tricky, and sometimes it’s hard to bring out your best in Reno. The Wolf Pack can sometimes surpass what they are on paper and maybe new head coach Jeff Choate can get them pointed in the right direction. It’s just that 24 points don’t really seem that bad for an SMU squad looking to get an important season off to a positive note where they’re likely to be pressing most of the game. A score along the lines of 37-13 seems optimistic if a lot of things go right for Nevada, with a game where SMU can thrive looking a lot worse. I’m going to lay the points and take the Mustangs.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the SMU Mustangs minus 24 points.