SMU Mustangs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 19, 9:00pm
Where:Amon G Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas
TV: FSN
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SMU +37/TCU -37
Over/Under Total: OFF
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This Saturday night in Fort Worth, Texas, the SMU Mustangs will try to pull off one the seasons biggest upsets when they take on the number three ranked Texas Christian University Horned Frogs. SMU is still trying to get to the glory days of the early 1980s, while TCU is in the process of becoming one of the best college football programs since 2010. Of course, SMU is a huge underdog, but one thing we have learned, especially after last weekend is that upsets can and will happen.
TCU comes in ranked third in the nation behind the defending national champions, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Alabama Crimson Tide. TCU is not worried about that, they just want to make sure they win the Big 12 and make that top four, just to confirm they have a shot to win it all and not be left out like they were last season. At 2-0, the first week at Minnesota was slightly unimpressive but just this past Saturday, TCU put up 70 points in a blowout win. Yes it was a lesser opponent in Stephen F Autsin, but Arkansas and Auburn also played lesser opponents this past week. We saw the Razorbacks get beat by Toledo while it took yest another Miracle on the Plains for Auburn to get by Jacksonville State by a 27-20 score in overtime. Points is, a win is a win and a big win is a big win. But here we are, week three, and TCU is going to need ten more of those to even sniff the final four. A blowout win over SMU is almost a must in order for TCU to stay in the top four. They already dropped one spot after a 70-7 win and if you remember, last season they dropped from 3rd to 5th after a 50+ point win. TCU has ZERO margin of error this season. This week, TCU comes in as a 37 point favorite and there is no reason to think they will not coveror at least they SHOULD.
So yea, the line is 37 points while the over under has yet to be set in most books. Dont worry about that, we have no plans to even touch the total points, so lets focus on the actual matchup between these two teams. SMU is 2-0 against the spread this year, while TCU is 1-1. SMU has played above expectations by bettors, but now people are seeing that, so I think this point spread will be right on and come down to some plays late in the game.
If SMU wants to cover the 37 points, the first and most important thing they will need to do is stop or at least slow down Heisman hopeful quarterback, Trevone Boykin. Boykin has already passed for 531 yards in two games with five passing touchdowns and another score on the ground. The TCU defense has also played well. Yea, they have yet to play some of the nations top offensive talent, but they are currently ranked 10th in points allowed. This is still rather impressive seeing as how most of the top teams are still playing cupcakes, so TCU is still playing better than most. SMU MUST score points in this game in order to have a chance to win. The Mustangs went blow for blow with Baylor in week onewell at least for the first half, but that is the type of output they will need to pull this upset of at least keep the game competitive.
I foresee a high scoring affair, well at least for TCU. The question is can SMU stay with them or will they fall victim to the TCU defense? I am predicting a big win for the TCU Horned Frogs, but I do see SMU keeping it closer than the Vegas line. Look for a 45-20 type in for the Frogs, and take the Mustangs to cover the 37 points in this one.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Take the SMU Mustangs to keep this game within 37 and get the cover! SMU +37
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