SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminoles Predictions: Can the Mustangs Cover at Home?

Florida State Seminoles (1-3 SU, ATS 1-3)  vs SMU Mustangs (3-1 SU, ATS 1-2)

Date: 8:00 EST Saturday, September 28th

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: Florida St. +5.5/Southern Methodist -5.5

Money Line: FSU +180/SMU  -219

Over/Under: 47.5

SMU comes into this matchup as the -5.5 point favorite over Florida State, with the over/under line set at 47.5 points. The game is scheduled for 8:00 ET on Saturday, September 28th, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. You can catch this one on ACCN. The money line odds are currently at -219 for SMU and +180 for Florida State. The Seminoles are 1-3, while the Mustangs are 3-1 this season.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Florida State Seminoles and SMU Mustangs did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Florida State Seminoles have a record of 2-1. The Florida State Seminoles also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 59 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Florida State Seminoles Recent Form:

Florida State is now 1-3 after their 14-9 victory over California. The Seminoles, who were -3 point favorites, won outright and covered the spread. This was a much-needed win for Florida State, as they had lost three straight games heading into this matchup. The over/under line was set at 44.5 points, but the teams combined for just 23 points, resulting in the under-hitting.

Florida State took an early 7-0 lead, but California closed the gap to 7-6 by halftime. The Golden Bears added a field goal in the third quarter, and Florida State trailed 9-7 heading into the fourth. The Seminoles scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter and held California scoreless to come out on top.

Florida State’s offense, led by quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, put up 309 total yards in their 14-9 win over California. Uiagalelei completed 59.3% of his passes for 177 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Ja’Khi Douglas was his top target, catching four passes for 86 yards.

The Seminoles’ offense moved the chains 17 times, with 132 yards on the ground. Lawrance Toafili led the rushing attack with 80 yards on 17 carries and added a rushing touchdown.

Florida State’s defense will need to tighten up after allowing 410 total yards in their last game. The Seminoles gave up 303 passing yards on 22 completions and allowed 107 rushing yards on 37 attempts. Despite these numbers, Florida State managed to hold California to just nine points. They also came up with one interception to help their cause.

Away Injury Report

SMU Mustangs Recent Form:

SMU is looking to build on their 3-1 record after a 66-42 win over TCU. The Mustangs, who were +1 point underdogs, not only won the game but also covered the spread. The combined score of 108 points easily surpassed the over/under line of 58.5 points.

SMU dominated early, taking a 17-0 lead in the first quarter. TCU closed the gap in the second quarter, but SMU still led 41-21 at halftime. The Mustangs added 18 points in the third quarter and held TCU to 7, ensuring they would come out on top. TCU outscored SMU 14-7 in the fourth quarter, but the game was already out of reach for them.

SMU’s offense was explosive in their 66-42 win, racking up 376 total yards and 23 first downs. The Mustangs were particularly effective on the ground, rushing for 239 yards and three touchdowns. Brashard Smith led the way with 127 yards on 18 carries, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt and finding the end zone three times.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings completed 73.7% of his passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 128.62. Romello Brinson was his top target, catching one pass for 51 yards.

SMU’s defense will be looking to tighten up after allowing 480 total yards in their last game. TCU’s passing attack was particularly effective, throwing for 415 yards and four touchdowns on 31 completions. The Mustangs did come up with two interceptions, but they still allowed 66 points. On the ground, SMU’s defense was more effective, holding TCU to just 65 rushing yards on 32 attempts.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Florida State has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 30 per game. The team went 8-2 overall in these games.
• Across the SMU Mustangs’ last five home games, the team averaged 28 points per game while allowing 25. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 4-1 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Florida State Seminoles have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the SMU Mustangs have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.

Free Pick

Florida State just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to hang around in this one. Not only that, but they are really going to struggle heading into Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Getting SMU at -5.5 points is a steal, and I’d take them all the way up to -7. For Saturday night’s matchup, take the Mustangs to cover as home favorites.