SEC Title Game Pick: Jay says to bet the total

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (11-0 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)

College Football Week 13

Date/Time: Saturday November 2nd, 2023. 4:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: UGA -6/ALA +6

Moneyline: Dawgs -225/Bama +195

Total: 55

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For the 3rd straight season, Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs will attempt to put an exclamation point on an undefeated regular season campaign when they meet the no. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, which will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bulldogs have won the last two College Football National Championships and are looking to accomplish one of the greatest feats in history by winning a 3rd straight championship. However, the road to the College Football playoffs will go through Atlanta, Georgia, and the 8th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, who are also fighting for a chance to reach the playoffs for a record 8th time.

The Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes nearly came to a crashing halt last week in the Iron Bowl. Alabama was facing an imminent defeat in last Saturday’s Iron Bowl on the plains in Auburn. However, with 32 seconds to go, QB Jalen Milroe connected with WR Isaiah Bond on the most unlikely touchdown pass to steal the upset away from the Tigers. Before the pass, Alabama was faced with 4th and goal from the Auburn 31 yard line which essentially set up a Hail Mary attempt for the game winning. Bond was able to get to a spot in the corner of the end zone and fight to pull down the game winning score to stun Auburn while keeping Alabama’s playoff chances intact. Now, the Crimson Tide will have the chance to meet Georgia for the 2nd time in the last three seasons with SEC and National Championship implications on the line.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

If we put away last week’s performances and look at each team’s body of work, this SEC Championship Game should be intriguing in a number of ways. The Bulldogs’ last two National Championship seasons have been headlined by dominant defense, perhaps some of the best defenses in college football history. This year’s Georgia team is once again pillared on a dynamic defense that has allowed just 294 yards per game (9th in FBS). However, they are not as overly dominant as the defenses Georgia has fielded in the last two years.

Instead, the Bulldogs have relied more on the offense this season, and QB Carson Beck has delivered by completing 72% passing for 3,495 yards with 22 touchdowns and six picks. TE Brock Bowers leads the Bulldogs with 661 receiving yards and projects to be the top TE in next year’s NFL Draft. However, Beck has spread the ball around well to a multitude of receivers, and the Georgia passing attack will need to be successful on Saturday against an Alabama defense that has allowed just 184 yards per game through the air, which ranks 15th in the FBS.

Like Georgia, Alabama’s defense is not as dominant as we have seen at times under Head Coach Nick Saban, but they are still very good. The question for Saturday’s match-up for Alabama is more closely centered around the offense and QB Jalen Milroe. As many are aware, Alabama’s offense has struggled at times throughout the year. Milroe started the season and was actually benched at one point in the opening weeks. Since then, Alabama’s QB has played well, with ten touchdowns and two picks over the last five games. However, Alabama’s offense has been relatively conservative and less explosive against the better defenses. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if Milroe and company can produce enough offense to put Georgia’s defense on their heels.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

• Georgia is 4-7-1 ATS on the season.
• Georgia is 18-0 SU in the last 18 games against SEC opponents.
• Georgia has hit the “over” in six of the last nine games.
• Georgia is 6-0 SU in the last six games against SEC West opponents.
• Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in each of the last five games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in 9 of the last 11 games against Georgia.
• Alabama is 7-1 SU in the last eight games against Georgia.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

Alabama upset an undefeated Georgia team in a similar situation back in the 2021 SEC Championship Game. While the Bulldogs got revenge in the National Championship that year, I would not rule out another upset possibility in this year’s title game. However, I think the best play for this game is clearly the “under.” Both defenses have big advantages in this match-up, and I believe we could see a very low-scoring affair. Take the under with confidence!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 55