SEC Title Game: Georgia vs. LSU Pick 12/7/19

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. No. 2 LSU Tigers (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS)
2019 SEC Championship Prediction
Date/Time: Saturday December 7th, 2019. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, G.A.
TV: CBS

Point Spread: UGA +7/LSU -7 (GTBets)
Over/Under Total: 57

For the first time in 8 years, a team from the state of Alabama will not represent the SEC West in the SEC Championship Game. Instead, this year’s Cinderella story by way of the no. 2 LSU Tigers will look to take down the conference championship following an undefeated regular season. The Tigers posted one of the best regular-season campaigns in college football history that included victories over 4 top 10 ranked opponents and are just one win away from earning a trip to the College Football Playoffs. However, the Georgia Bulldogs are looking to play the spoiler role this Saturday in their home state. Despite an early-season loss at South Carolina, the 4th ranked Bulldogs are in a position to not only steal the SEC Championship but also steal a spot into the playoffs as well.

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Georgia makes 3rd straight SEC Championship Game appearance

The Bulldogs will be making their 3rd straight SEC Championship Game appearance on Saturday. Head coach Kirby Smart spent many years alongside Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa and has built Georgia’s program in a similar fashion to Saban’s early years in Alabama. Georgia provides an elite power running game behind the legs of an electric talent in D’Andre Swift. Swift went down with a shoulder injury in last week’s win against Georgia Tech but is fully expected to play. Outside of the dynamic run game, the Bulldogs have an extremely talented defense and an opportunistic passing attack behind the arm of quarterback Jake Fromm who has completed 62% passing for 2,385 yards with 21 touchdowns and just three picks.

The Bulldogs chances of scoring the upset will likely ride on the success of their offense this week. Georgia’s defense ranks 2nd in the FBS in scoring, allowing just 10.4 points per game, which should make things difficult for the dynamic LSU offense. However, the Tigers may have the best quarterback in the nation in Joe Burrow, along with several stars at the skill positions that have averaged 48.7 points per game (2nd in the FBS). Therefore, rest assured LSU will find ways to score. For Georgia, they have to take advantage of a vulnerable LSU defense that has allowed 22 points per game. The Tigers defense has been heavily criticized this season and rightfully so at times. Before last week’s shutdown effort against Texas A&M, the LSU defense had relinquished 98 points combined over their prior three contests against teams like Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. LSU has averaged 50 plus points in their last four conference games, which includes a 46 spot against Alabama. While Georgia’s defense is better, the Bulldogs offense is still going to have to score points to keep this game competitive.

Trust LSU’s offense

The reason that the Tigers continue to impress each week is that their offense is ridiculously talented. Despite being a pass-first offense, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a workhorse that has produced 1,233 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season. At any point, this offense can shift from an elite passing attack to an imposing physical rushing front. In the passing game, quarterback Joe Burrow has likely emerged as the #1 overall prospect in college football with a season stat line that includes nearly an 80% completion rate, 4,366 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Simply incredible numbers for any quarterback, much less a quarterback from the dynamic SEC West.

Receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have combined for over 2,500 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns in this offense. Both Chase and Jefferson are special talents. Collectively, this offense has so many weapons that they are nearly impossible to defend. Georgia’s defense will provide a tough test, but I highly doubt they will be able to hold up for an entire 60 minutes. Not only do I not trust the Bulldogs defense, but I am not confident the offense can produce enough scoring opportunities to keep this game within reach either. QB Jake Fromm has not performed well against better defenses this season, and though D’Andre Swift is a great back, he cannot win the game alone. If you don’t believe me, look back to last year’s game against LSU and Georgia in Death Valley, which featured the majority of the same match-ups that you will see again this Saturday. The Tigers won that game easily 36-16. I expect another convincing victory again this Saturday, not because of last year’s result but because the match-ups are nearly identical.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: LSU -7