San Jose State vs. UNLV: College Football Week 13 Predictions Against the Spread

UNLV Rebels (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Friday, November 22, 2024 at 10PM EST
Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
TV: Fox Sports One

The UNLV Rebels come to CEFCU Stadium on Friday for a Mountain West Conference battle with the San Jose State Spartans. It’s a big game in the conference, even with Boise clearly the front-runner by a fair margin. There are still some things on the table for both teams. At 8-2, UNLV is looking to put the finishing touches on what has been a great season by their standards. It gets difficult, though, in late-season play with the Spartans representing a dangerous opponent. Despite a fast 14-0 start on Boise last week that had some people paying attention, they ended up losing 42-21. They look for better this week against a UNLV team that won their second in a row since also losing to Boise State, beating San Diego State at home, 41-20.

Tricky Spot for the Rebels

UNLV has done well to upgrade their program, coming on strong last season and hoping it really takes shape this year, as it appears to be doing. But this season has been filled with a lot of adversity, personnel issues, and tough games, and when you combine that with the massive effort they’ve put forth, you have to be wary of when the wheels will come off. It often times happens when you least expect it and with the Rebels on the road here laying better than a touchdown against a team that can jump all over you when the conditions are right, it’s not an altogether comfortable equation for UNLV backers this week.

A highly imperfect team on many levels, it took Boise State last week to put a stop to what can be a vital Spartans’ aerial attack. With Walker Eget now leading the way behind center, the damage he can do with receivers Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart makes them exceedingly dangerous. They have other weapons that can do damage on the ground and through the air, but that one-two punch at wide receiver can be a handful. Along the way, the Spartans can make a lot of mistakes. Their offense can be one-dimensional in stretches. When their defense is bad, it can be really bad. But that offense can be a real problem and while UNLV has held up decently as a defense aerially, they have shown they can picked apart by air-heavy quarterbacks and after putting up 446 yards against Boise on Saturday, Eget looks to get some damage done at home this week.

What the Rebels Want on Friday

Alas, there is a reason that despite two excellent receivers, the Spartans have been alternating wins and losses for the past eight weeks. With mistakes and a lack of consistency, that offense isn’t always bankable. Throw in all the turnovers and this might not be the greatest matchup for this Spartans’ offense, going against a big-play defense like what UNLV brings to the table. With the pass-rush, with turnovers, this Rebels’ defense can really put their imprint on a game. With multiple interceptions in three of his last four games, Eget better find some answers, or this is a defense that can undermine the entire San Jose effort on Friday.

That’s before even getting into the work of Rebels’ quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and how his dual-threat abilities came in and saved the season. He has been excellent commandeering this team through their toughest stretch of the season, with his clutch play a big part of why they’re sitting pretty at 8-2, not something you’ve been able to say very often about this UNLV team in late-November. With guys like receiver Ricky White, III. and running back Jai’den Thomas, along with a big cast of supporting talent, the Rebels look to take it to a San Jose defense whose ability lags far behind the other side of the ball, having mostly performed badly in conference play.

X-Factors on Friday

While Williams has been adept at taking care of the ball with only three interceptions on the season, the Spartans defense can make up for their lack of rigidity with a lot of big plays. Between Robert Rahimi, DJ Harvey and the rest of a ball-hawk secondary, this is a group that can really pounce in the event an opposing QB has an errant day of throwing. It’s that big-play potential on both sides of the ball that can make taking a stance against the Spartans a daunting proposition. If you catch them on one of their bad days, it can be a breeze, but it’s still a 6-4 team that is fairly competent. And even if their defense isn’t making plays left and right with their top two receivers putting up big stats, if they even get a reduced version of those two things, it can make beating them by a lot a difficult task. For all of the Rebels’ success this season, these are still two teams who are both dead .500 against the spread.

Take the Points

I think the Rebels are at a point now where things might be a little harder to come by than they were to start the season. The wins are becoming more of a battle in spots, and even if they are able to continue coming up with the right answers, their role this week as large road-favorite seems to miss the mark on a few levels. And not that a quality UNLV team that might be the second-best team in the conference can’t beat up on an inconsistent San Jose team, I see the Spartans keeping this close and getting a cover this week at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Jose State Spartans plus 7.5 points.

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