San Jose State Spartans vs. USC Trojans Pick ATS

San Jose State Spartans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 8PM EDT

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

TV: Pac-12

Point Spread: SJSU +30/USC -30 (Bovada – 50% bonus for credit card depositors! 75% for BTC!)

Over/Under Total: 63.5

The San Jose Spartans come down to the LA Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans as both teams open up the college football season. For USC, they are hoping the second season for head coach Lincoln Riley brings with it a marked improvement on what was still an 11-win season in 2022. The sixth-leading choice to win the championship, USC brings with it a lot of firepower and catches what should be a fairly easy matchup with this San Jose St. bunch to open their campaign. But as jumbo-sized favorites, to what extent will they be dominant?

Prognosis for the Spartans

San Jose State has a lot of talent on its roster. Their number of returning starters overall is average, but they return their quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and the entirety of their offensive line. Their defense was the best part of their team last season, so they’re looking to merge the two in order to maximize the talent they bring to the table. Alas, that is all relative to the Mountain West and can look a little different when paired against a potential national power in the Trojans. For what it’s worth, in 2021, the Spartans lost 30-7 in this very stadium to Southern Cal. They hope for better this season and are improved from where they were then. But so are the Trojans.

This will be the sixth season where Cordeiro takes snaps at this level, as the former Hawaii starter brings a lot of experience to the table. It’s important to gauge how far this program has traveled under the stewardship of head coach Brent Brennan, who took over a program that really soured. In his first two seasons, he was 3-22, but he has since led the Spartans to a more-respectable 24-20 mark since overcoming the immense funk that had permeated the program. For them to succeed in this game, they will have needed to find some answers leading up to this spot on defense, where there was a significant gulf between talent and results. They lost some talent there, but looking at their results in a lot of spots, it’s not clear that it’s an altogether bad thing.

This isn’t an easy spot for the Spartans. They’re going to see a big spike in stadium size playing in the cavernous LA Coliseum. They might also be experiencing a temperature spike in the late-August So-Cal heat. Let’s face it; their season isn’t judged on how they fare in these one-off matchups where they’re out of their depth. Coach Brennan and this group will be looking to do damage in-conference but nonetheless want to start the year with some positive signs in a tough matchup. They’re hoping Cordeiro, who still has a little talent left at WR, can scrape together a few stores, with their defense avoiding things getting too ugly. In that event, ducking in under the big spread is not something too hard to envision.

Will Southern Cal’s Issues Surface Here?

Last season saw some disappointment, especially with how the Trojans ended the season phoning it in against Utah in a rematch conference title game and then losing to Tulane in a bowl. With their talent, two losses to Utah and losing to the Green Wave is a little much. But with Lincoln Riley last season with the Trojans and even before with the Sooners, there might be some big losses, but he’s not terribly kind to large-sized underdogs. There may be times when overmatched conference opponents hang in there better than suspected, but against perceived no-hopers like San Jose State, he’s not shy about laying it on thick.

The Southern Cal offensive firepower and options would be the envy of most teams. But we’ve seen poor defense become almost a calling card for this era of USC teams. Over the second half of the season, the “D” really started struggling and were clearly sagging by the end of the season. Granted, it showed most when playing ranked teams like Utah (twice), UCLA, Notre Dame, and Tulane. San Jose State does not compare favorably with that grouping of teams. But when you’re getting thirty points, you don’t have to.

Obstacles for the Spartans

Again, we’re asking a revamped Spartans’ defense that underachieved last year to repel a fresh game-one USC offense that is rife with talent, unlike anything San Jose will see all season. Granted, they could catch a version of USC that isn’t in full-flight yet, but if I were a prospective San Jose backer, I’d almost prefer this game come in midseason, where you could catch some apathy from a high-powered team looking for a restful week. With hopes high and legs fresh, San Jose State will need to stop last year’s Heisman winner in QB Caleb Williams, a cavalry of potentially-impactful backs, and a receiver crew that still has tremendous depth and talent despite losing Jordan Addison. Three ball-catchers with at least 600 yards from last season return to make that loss easier. It very well could end up being one the most explosive offenses in college football—something that might be well outside San Jose State’s wheelhouse.

Lay the Fat Number (With Caution)

Just when the case for San Jose picks up steam in my mind, thoughts keep racing back to spots last season where the San Jose defense was taken to school by offenses like San Diego State and Eastern Michigan. Then you think what an even less-talented defense this season looks like in this spot. The picture starts becoming less and less rosy. Even if you have optimism that the Spartans can throw up a couple of scores, I don’t see them keeping USC out of the end zone enough to make it matter. I’ll take Southern Cal.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the USC Trojans minus 30 points. This would be a good game to insert into a college football teaser! Check out our best teaser odds page to make sure you’re getting the best of it!