San Jose State at Colorado State Odds, Analysis, Pick ATS

San Jose State Spartans (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Colorado State Rams (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 4:30PM EDT

Where: Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado

TV: TruTV

The San Jose State Spartans come to Fort Collins for a Mountain West Conference face-off with the Colorado State Rams on Saturday. Colorado State has upgraded their form under third-year head coach Jay Norvell, but are finding taking that next step difficult. They still managed to give favored Oregon State a good game on the road last week, losing in overtime to fall to 2-3. They are back at home this week to face the San Jose State Spartans, owners of a 4-1 mark and fresh off edging out Nevada at home, 35-31. That followed their only loss of the season—a 54-52 overtime loss to Washington St. Who should we back this week?

Not as Bad as it Looks for the Rams?

With a team like the Rams, the fairest measuring stick is how they fare in conference play. It’s a bit of an anomaly that October 12 is their first conference game of the season. It is now where they should be judged. A 52-0 wipeout loss to Texas wasn’t a good look, nor was a 28-9 loss to Colorado. And the game was for the taking against Oregon State, but they still covered the spread. Throw a few wins in there, and I’m not sure a San Jose backer this week can glean much from the Rams’ uneven 2-3 start to the season. Even though they came up short last week, they were 10-point dogs to the Beavers. And if anything, it was good to see them finally get that offense unfurled a bit at this level, with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi having a decent game through the air, connecting well with top receiver Tory Holton. In contrast, RB Avery Morrow had a big game. Seeing those guys click is a good sign as they enter conference play.

Are the Spartans for Real?

For a team that hasn’t exceeded seven wins since 2012, this is a promising start for the Spartans under first-year head coach and longtime Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo. They fell to Washington State in double overtime, but there are definite signs of life on this offense. Last week was a little bit more of a grind than some would have forecasted against Nevada at home. They had the massive struggle against the Cougars, got a week off, and were a little flat as a not-so-great Wolf Pack team really contended for the win. So, while they are 4-1, they’ve had a couple of easy ones with some massive struggles in the mix, as well. After struggling at home in conference last week, who’s to say the Spartans don’t face issues in this difficult road-spot against a Colorado St. team that might be more capable in this context than we’ve seen them at points this season?

Issues for Colorado State This Week?

San Jose State certainly wields some things offensively that could have conference opposition in trouble this season. QB Emmett Brown is already near 1500 yards through 5 games. He has connected well with WR Nick Nash, who already has 55 receptions on the season. WR Justin Lockhart is also a viable weapon, and they’re simply dangerous. The Rams’ defense has shown itself to be reasonably stout this season, allowing 39 to Washington State notwithstanding. But they’re not really showing much flair for the big play. Key stops and overall stiffness goes a long way, but in a spot like this, a big play here and there could help curb the San Jose attack if they start gaining momentum on the Rams.

It’s hard to really put your finger on what the Colorado State defense does best. They can show good pass-defense, but against teams more-inclined to go that route, the results haven’t been great. They aren’t great against the run, but that’s not an aspect of the San Jose State offense that figures to make much of an impact in this game. But maybe they can key in on Nash somehow, limit the damage elsewhere, and make it work in what is still a tough road spot for opposing offenses. I sense that we’ve seen enough flaws in San Jose’s last two games to give Colorado State hope. I think each team’s respective results paint an image on paper that we might not see represented on the field on Saturday.

Take the Small Home Dog

There’s such a non-thrilling vibe with Colorado State. There are really no stars on the team. It’s hard to identify their real strong points. Meanwhile, San Jose State has the 4-1 record, along with an offense putting up numbers, and it’s just a lot flashier and more eye-catching. But maybe these two squads aren’t that far apart in an overall sense. Maybe the Rams’ defense can step up this week and keep San Jose in the 20-30 range while taking their own offense, which has seemingly started to come alive and take it to a Spartans’ team whose defense lags a bit behind the other side of the ball. In what should be a tight one, I’ll take the home team and the point. I’m going with the Rams.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado State Rams plus one point.

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