San Jose St. vs. San Diego St. Odds, Trends, Prediction ATS

San Jose State Spartans (6-2 SU, ATS 4-4) vs San Diego State Aztecs (5-4 SU, ATS
3-6)

Date: Saturday, November 12th

Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA

TV: FS1

Point Spread: Spartans -1/Aztecs +1 (Make SJ State +19 or SD State +21 by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Spartans -119/Aztecs +-103

Over/Under: 39.5

RECENT FORM

The Spartans come into the game with an overall record of 6-2. This strong play includes going 4-1 in Mountain West action. This season, the Spartans have been favored in 7 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-4. Their average over-under betting line is 47.31 leading to an over-under record of 2-6.

In their most recent game, the Spartans defeated Colorado State by a score of 28-16. But, they were unable to grab the ATS win, as their 12 was not enough to cover the spread. The team finished the game by throwing two touchdown passes. Overall, the Spartans had 274 passing yards on a completion percentage of 64.3%. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 81 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Chevan Cordeiro has an overall passer rating of 93.3 on a total of 2216 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Receiver Elijah Cooks heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 707. The top option in the run game for the team is Kairee Robinson, who has carried the ball 98 times for a total of 447 yards.

So far this year, the Aztecs have a 3-2 record in the Mountain West conference. San Diego State has an overall mark of 5-4. This season, the Aztecs have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 3-6. Their average over-under betting line is 44.78 leading to an over-under record of 3-6.

In their previous game, San Diego State knocked off UNLV by a score of 14-10. However, despite the road win, the Aztecs did not cover the spread, as they were 5.0-point favorites. In the win, San Diego State completed 61.3 of their 31 passes, 2 of which resulted in touchdowns. In the rushing game, the Aztecs did not find the endzone, while finishing with a total of 99 yards on the ground.

The team’s leading quarterback is Braxton Burmeister, who comes into the game with a passer rating of 50.87 on a completion percentage of 50.0%. Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers, has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 366 receiving yards. In the run game, Jordan Byrd has accumulated 363 on 73 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Against the spread, the Spartans have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games. Straight up, they have a record of 6-4. Their last ten scoring differential sits at +2.4, as they averaged 24.3 points per game while allowing 21.9. The over-under record in these games was 3-7.

Across their five previous road games, San Jose State has an ATS mark of 4-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 22.0 points per game.

In their last ten contests, the Aztecs have a straight-up record of 6-4, while covering the spread at a rate of 60.0%. Their last 10 over-under record comes in at 4-6. San Diego State has a negative scoring differential in these games, averaging 21.4 points per game and allowing
21.6.

When looking at their past five home matchups, San Diego State has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 21.0 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Spartans will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 75th in the NCAA in points scored and are matched up against a San Diego State defense that is allowing an average of 21.33 points per game.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a San Jose State offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a San Diego State defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Aztecs are just 72nd in sacks per game.

On the season, the San Jose State offense is averaging just 89.88 yards per game on the ground. Their production has come on an average of 28.62 rush attempts per game (126th). This week, the Spartans will be facing a San Diego State defense ranked 58th in rush yards allowed per game. On the season, they have averaged 89.88 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Aztecs will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 116th in the NCAA in points scored and are facing off against an excellent San Jose State defense that is allowing an average of 16.38 points per game.

So far, the San Diego State offense is averaging just 163.78 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 37.78 rush attempts per game (54th). This week, the Aztecs will be facing a San Jose State defense that is 31st in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they have averaged 81.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

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