Rutgers vs. Kansas State Guaranteed Rate Bowl: RBD’s Pick Against the Spread

Rat(e) Bowl Prediction

Rutgers vs K State

It’s early, only a few Bowl games played, but before I get to my analysis on the Scarlet Knights and Wildcats let’s look at some numbers and see if there’s anything we can use moving forward.

Bowl game results:

Sides
Three Favs, one Push
(I marked Memphis a Push based on the closing line -5, but players could have had a W with W Virg if they got the +6 that was out there for a bit, or a W with Memphis if they bought them at +1′ to -4′)

Totals
Three Unders, 1 Over

Here’s something to keep in mind – all four final scores thus far show the line moves were correct.
S ‘Bama dropped from -9’ to -6, won by 7, anyone who bought before the move won. Same with Mem, J Mad and UNLV.
The follow-the-money theory is working well so far.

Looking at my own handicapping methods:

Bowl system #3 is 1-0 after the J Mad win. In it’s 18th season the record is now 24-15, 61%.
One game left that qualifies, Ole Miss.

WFNP is 1-0
In it’s Fourth year, 17-7 now, 70%

WF1 is 1-0
Third year, 21-10, 67%

WF2 is 1-1
Third year, 20-11, 64%

NP Overs are 0-1 after the Las Vegas game, one spot left, Georgia Southern/Sam Houston.

Didn’t have any NP Unders this year.

Teams that lost their last two games during the regular season are 0-1.

Flip-Flop Favs are now 2-0.

For my column picks I have three open bets, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Mississippi.

I did a lousy job on the Oklahoma buy.
I didn’t expect it to drop because I didn’t expect Navy to beat Army. I got it at -8′, they’re now -5, but more importantly half the houses on my screen have taken down their line, which likely means transfer portal problems for the Cowboys.
And me and my bet.

I said it in the forum the other day and I’ll repeat it here – handicapping is difficult enough without extra factors being added to your work, such as who’s playing and who’s not. The league HAS to fix this problem they created.

I did okay on South Carolina, got them at -9′, they’re now at -10 (despite one of their top defenders announcing yesterday that he’s not playing now, because . . . transfer portal!)

Made the right move on Mississippi, got -14 for just 10 cents extra juice, and they’re at -15/-15′ now.

For my next pick, I’m turning to K State.
Or, to be more accurate, I’m looking at a play against Rutgers and head coach Schiano to be even more specific.

It’s a day-after-Christmas contest, kicking off at 2:30 PST.
Let’s do the basics:

Rutgers 7-5 SU, K State 8-4.

Rutgers 6-5-1 ATS, K St 4-8.
The on the road records don’t make those last numbers look any better for me, Rutgers 3-1 ATS, K St 1-5.

So what numbers DO I have that make me want to take K St?
Glad you asked.

1) They have a better Sagarin ranking, 24 to Rutgers 46.
2) The have the better SOS (Strength of Schedule) 31 to Rutger’s 59.
3) They have a slight edge in both points for and points against.
4) They have a better rushing yards average per game, 197 to Rutgers 162.
5) They have a better pass defense.

That gives the Wildcats a better number in all six categories that I rate teams for in their Bowl game.
While doing my original handicapping I had them circled as qualifying for Play #3, a better number in five of six categories including the top three rated ones.
While doing this write-up, I saw my error; they actually qualify for Play #2, a better record in six of six categories,18-13, 58% over the last 17 years.
And you know what I always say about 58% – anything at that number or higher is good enough for me to play ON.

But I have two more reasons for making this bet, both based on getting to root for Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano to lose.

Secondary reason – I used Rutgers once this season, betting AGAINST them, and I lost. Yes, I always say revenge is not a reason to bet but I have stats to back me on this one. And I had a profitable season, so I can afford to indulge myself for entertainment purposes in this one.

Primary reason – in the opening game of the season, Schiano, up 38-7, with just SIX seconds left on the clock, punched in another TD instead of taking a knee.
SIX SECONDS!
Classless.
And reason enough for me to bet against him, the Rat in the Rate Bowl.

Ugly stat for this play:
Schiano is 6-2 SU in Bowl games.
And I have to lay a TD to him in this one!

K State head coach Chris Klieman is 2-2 in Bowls. His last appearance was last year when he beat North Carolina State by nine points.

I admit, the numbers favor a play on Rutgers +7 in this one, they look to be the obvious choice. But if winning at sports betting was a simple matter of playing the team with a better numbers, 95% of betters wouldn’t lose. Sometimes, you have to take a chance on the not-so
obvious choice.

Final note:
In 2006, Schiano and Rutgers won the Texas Bowl, 37-10.
The team they beat?
K State.
I’m not the only one looking for revenge in this game.

When to Buy Recommendation
Wildcats opened at -7. That’s still the common number, but I see -6′ showing up. I think the -7 is a little high to begin with and I believe that between now and game day people are going to notice Schiano’s Bowl record and weigh it heavily when making their wagers. I think this one drops, so I’ll wait.

K State (wait to buy)

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