Rutgers at Michigan Prediction: Blowout at the Big House?

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 0-3), 9/23/23

When: noon ET Saturday, Sept. 23

Where: Michigan Stadium

TV: BTN

Point spread: Rut +24.5/UM -24.5 (Cut this line way down with a massive 20 point teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money line: Rut +1700/Mich -10000

Over/under: 45

Two-time defending Big Ten champion Michigan begins pursuit of a three-peat when it hosts Rutgers in the conference opener for both teams Saturday afternoon at the Big House.

The Wolverines started 3-0 this season without Coach Harbaugh, who will return to the sidelines this week after serving a three-game suspension. The Scarlet Knights are also 3-0 for the third straight season under Coach Schiano.

Who do we like for our free RU/UM pick?

NCAAF Betting Odds

The Week 4 college football betting market opened Michigan as a 25-point favorite over Rutgers, with an over/under of right around 45. Early betting action then edged that spread down to 24.5.

Rutgers Betting Preview

The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 for the third straight season following a 35-16 victory over short-handed Virginia Tech last Saturday. Rutgers turned a Hokies turnover into a touchdown less than one minute into the game and led 21-3 at the half. The Knights then allowed V-Tech to get within 21-16 early in the fourth quarter but tacked on two TDs from there to secure the W and the money as seven-point favorites.

Rutgers actually got out-gained by the Hokies 319-302 but out-rushed Virginia Tech 256-129 and won the turnover battle 2-0, creating a +7 points differential.

The Scarlet Knights opened this season with a 24-7 win over Northwestern, then beat Temple 36-7. So, while Rutgers hasn’t exactly played a Murderers Row of a schedule, it’s won all three games by at least 17 points.

The Knights returned 14 starters this season from a team that played 4-8 last year. They’re also halfway to a bowl bid already.

Michigan Betting Preview

The Wolverines are also 3-0 on the season after brushing aside Bowling Green last Saturday, 31-6. Michigan, favored by 41 points, drove its first possession of the game 77 yards to a touchdown but only led 14-6 at the half. The Wolverines then pulled away in the third quarter but took their foot off the gas and came up three scores short of covering that spread.

Michigan only produced 301 yards of total offense against the Falcons, and while the defense only allowed 203 yards, Bowling Green was playing with its 3rd-string QB. The Wolverines also turned the ball over four times.

Michigan opened its season with a 30-3 decision over East Carolina but couldn’t cover at -35. The Wolverines then defeated UNLV 35-7 but couldn’t cover at -38.

Michigan’s just favored by too much too often.

The Wolverines returned 15 starters this season from a team that made the College Football Playoff last season. Michigan also went off as the favorite to win the Big Ten again this season at a price of +180.

Rutgers-Michigan Recent History

The Wolverines own an eight-game winning streak on the Knights, but they’re also only 4-4 ATS over that run, again favored by too much too often. Last year, Michigan, favored by 26 on the road, actually trailed Rutgers 17-14 well into the third quarter. But then the floodgates opened, and the Wolverines rolled to a 52-17 victory and the cash.

College Football Betting Trends

Michigan is 3-7-1 ATS over its last 11 home games.

Michigan under Coach Harbaugh is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS against Rutgers under Coach Schiano.

Totals Report

The Under has cashed in two of their three Knights games this season, averaging 42 total points.

The Under bet is 3-0 in Wolverines games, averaging 37 points per game.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Rutgers is a somewhat respectable 3-0 on the season. The Knights can also run the ball a bit, and they’re playing good defense. Michigan, meanwhile, is under-performing so far this season, although that could change at any moment. Also, over the last three meetings between these teams, Rutgers basically played Michigan tough for 10 1/2 quarters. Also, playing this game at Ann Arbor means the spread is probably inflated. We’re not calling for the outright upset, but we’ll ride with Rutgers here, plus the points.