Rose Bowl Prediction: Alabama vs. Michigan CFP Semi-Final

Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (13-0, 7-5-1), 1/1/24
When: 5 pm ET Monday, Jan. 1
Where: Rose Bowl
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point spread: Ala +1.5/Mich -1.5
Money line: Ala +110/Mich -130
Over/under: 44.5

Two of the most storied programs in college football meet for the first of the two CFP national semifinals when Alabama battles Michigan in the Rose Bowl New Year’s Day.

The Wolverines rolled through the Big 10 this season, won the Big Game again, and are looking to advance to the national championship game after messing up an opportunity last season.

The Crimson Tide come in as short underdogs, perhaps under-rated, following at least a couple of close calls this season.

How are we playing this game with our free Rose Bowl betting pick?

Bowl Betting Markets

The CFB Bowl season betting market opened Michigan at -1.5 for this Rose Bowl, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the line on this game should be three points.

Rose Bowl Betting Preview

Alabama played 12-1 this season, won the SEC West, then beat Georgia in the SEC championship game to return to the CFP after missing out last season. The Tide started 1-1, with that tough loss to Texas, which is also in the CFP. Alabama then won its last ten games, sweeping through the SEC, winning a lot games by closer scores than in the past. Like 26-20 over Texas A&M, 24-21 over Arkansas, and 27-24 – on a minor miracle – over Auburn. And the Ole Miss and LSU games were tough, too. That’s why ‘Bama went into the SEC championship game as the underdog.

But the Tide out-played the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs, won that SEC title game 27-24, and snagged the invite to the CFP.

Alabama only returned 10 starters this season and was still expected to compete for the national title. You know ‘Bama; they don’t replace talent, they reload. The Tide didn’t quite play like the monster they’ve been for so long, and yet, here they are.

We wagered on Alabama games several times this season, and to success. We won when we faded the Tide early in the season against Texas, then hit when we played ‘Bama at Texas A&M and against LSU. But we gave a little back when we bet against the Tide in the SEC championship game.

Meanwhile, Michigan played 13-0 this season, 9-0 in Big 10 play, and won its third straight Big Ten championship. So the Wolverines are also back in the CFP for the third straight season. Michigan began by easing through a weak non-conference schedule with Coach Harbaugh out serving a suspension. The Wolverines then rolled through most of their Big 10 slate, holding their first six conference opponents to a total of 44 points. Things got a little tougher down the stretch, but Michigan held off Penn State and Maryland, then out-lasted Ohio State in the Big Game 30-24.

The Wolverines then capped off their perfect regular season by shutting out Iowa in the Big 10 title tilt – although that was no huge task – 26-0.

Michigan returned 15 starters this season and went off as one of the top three choices to win the national championship. And over the course of the season, playing through the off-the-field distractions, with a great QB, a nice running game, and a suffocating defense, the Wolverines proved to us they’re the best team in the country.

We also bet a bunch of Michigan games this season, and it worked out nicely. We first hit when we bet Rutgers getting +24.5 at the Big House – the Wolverines won 31-7. We then lost when we faded Michigan at Nebraska at -17. What a mistake that was. But we won with Michigan at Minnesota at -19, at Michigan State at -25, and at Penn State at -4.5. We then won one last time with the Wolverines at -3 against the Buckeyes.

The best teams Alabama played this season were Texas and Georgia. The Tide led the Longhorns through three quarters but lost the fourth quarter 21-8 and the game 34-24. Later, Alabama, as mentioned above, outplayed the Bulldogs in that SEC title game and won.

The best team Michigan played this year was Ohio State. The Wolverines out-played the Buckeyes that day, but not by a lot; they never trailed, won, and covered.

These programs met most recently four seasons ago in the Citrus Bowl, a 35-16 Tide win.

By the Numbers

Alabama averaged 401 yards per game on offense this season, 173 rushing. Defensively, the Tide held opponents to 313 YPG, 125 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 8th-toughest schedule in CFB.

Michigan averaged 381 YPG on offense, 162 on the ground, and limited opponents to 240 YPG, just 87 on the ground, while playing Sagarin’s No. 56 schedule.

College Football Betting Trends

Over the last eight sets of CFP semifinals, the No. 1 seed is 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS vs. the No. 4 seed.

Over the last three bowl seasons, the SEC is 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS vs. the Big 10.

Michigan is 0-6 straight-up and ATS over its last six bowl games.

Totals Report

• The Overs are 9-3 in Tide games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
• The totals are split 6-6 in Wolverines games, which are averaging 42 points.

Free College Football Betting Pick

We believe Michigan is the best team in CFP. The win against Ohio State impressed us because while the score was close, the Wolverines basically controlled the game. And we’d call the Buckeyes and Alabama very close. Meanwhile, the Tide won several close games this season. A few plays here and there, and they might be playing in the Peach Bowl. We like Michigan to win this Rose Bowl.