ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction: Wisconsin vs. LSU Pick

Wisconsin Badgers (7-5 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) vs. Louisiana State Tigers (9-3, 8-4), 1/1/24
When: noon ET Monday, Jan. 1
Where: Raymond James Stadium
TV: ESPN2

Betting Odds

Point spread: Wis +9.5/LSU -9.5
Money line: Wis +270/LSU -345
Over/under: 55.5

The SEC meets the Big 10 when LSU, without its Heisman-winning quarterback, plays Wisconsin, without its star running back, in the ReliaQuest (formerly the Outback) Bowl on New Year’s Day in Tampa.

The Tigers won nine games this season, the only losses coming against some good teams, and QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman. But he opted out of this bowl, heading instead for the NFL draft.

Meanwhile, the Badgers should consider themselves lucky to be playing in a New Year’s Day bowl.

Bowl Betting Market

The CFB bowl season betting market opened LSU at -10.5 for this ReliaQuest Bowl, with an over/under of right around 55. Early betting action dipped that line to -9.5. But considering the Heisman Trophy winner opted out of this game, we’re a bit surprised that line didn’t fall even further.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the line on this game should be 12.5 points.

ReliaQuest Bowl Betting Preview

Wisconsin played 7-5 this season, its first under Coach Fickell, and 5-4 in Big Ten play, to reach a bowl for the 22nd straight season. But realistically, the Badgers under-performed. Wisconsin started 4-1, beating nobody of note, with a disappointing loss at what turned out to be a rather mediocre Washington State team. The Badgers then stumbled through a 1-4 stretch, with a semi-respectable loss to Ohio State but also losses to Indiana and Northwestern. Wisconsin then got out-played by Nebraska but won the game in overtime, then finished its regular season with a 28-14 victory over rival Minnesota back on Nov. 25.

The Badgers returned 17 starters this season and, despite the new coaching regime, went off as the favorite to win the Big 10 West. Instead, Wisconsin struggled under the new systems through injuries and poor quarterback play.

We bet several Badgers games this season with decent results. We cashed with Wisconsin at -6 at Purdue, then cashed again when we faded the Badgers against Iowa. We took a loss when we backed Ohio State at -14.5 at Madison – Wisconsin kept that game to 24-10 – but cashed again when we backed Bucky in the season finale at the Gophers.

Meanwhile, LSU played 9-3 this season, 6-2 in the SEC, to make a bowl for the third straight season. The Tigers only started 3-2, with a loss to what turned out to be a very good Florida State team and a crazy loss to Ole Miss. LSU then won three in a row, including a victory over a pretty good Missouri team, but a 42-28 defeat at Alabama knocked the Tigers from contention in the SEC West. Louisiana State then won its last three games, putting up some big offensive numbers, finishing with a 42-30 triumph over Texas A&M back on Nov. 25.

The Tigers returned 15 starters this season and were expected to make a good defense of their division title of last season. But they gave up 55 points to the Rebels and 42 to the Crimson Tide, and it cost them.

We also bet on several LSU games this season. We won when we faded the Tigers in the season opener against the Seminoles but lost when we backed LSU against Ole Miss. But we later cashed when we faded LSU again against Alabama.

The best team Wisconsin played this season was Ohio State. The Badgers got out-played by the Buckeyes but kept the game close enough to cover the spread.

The best team LSU played this season was either Alabama or Florida State. The Tigers were actually favored by one point over the Seminoles, led 17-14 at the half, but got blown out in the second half. Later, LSU led the Tide 28-21 well into the third quarter in Tuscaloosa before letting that game slip away.

On the personnel front, while LSU is without Daniels – sophomore Garrett Nussmeier is expected to make his first start – Wisconsin is without leading rusher Braelon Allen.

These programs met most recently seven seasons ago, a 16-14 Badgers victory at Lambeau Field.

By the Numbers

Wisconsin averaged 370 yards per game on offense this season, 163 rushing. The Badgers also held opponents to 332 YPG defensively, 139 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 65th-toughest schedule in CFB.

LSU averaged 548 YPG on offense, 213 on the ground, allowed 409 YPG on defense, and 163 on the ground while playing Sagarin’s No. 26 schedule.

College Football Betting Trends

Over the last three bowl seasons, the SEC is 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS vs. the Big 10.

Wisconsin is 8-1, both SU and ATS, over its last nine bowl games.

Totals Report

The Unders played 8-4 in Badgers games this season, which averaged 41 total points.

The Overs played 11-1 in Tigers games, which averaged 74 points.

Free ReliaQuest Bowl Pick

LSU, even without Daniels, is the better team in this match-up and should win this game. Losing a star QB can go both ways; look what USC’s backup QB did in the Holiday Bowl the other night. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is not a very good team right now. It might take Coach Fickell a little longer than we expected to get this program rolling again. Finally, the SEC owns a good recent bowl record against the Big 10. We’ll take the Tigers minus the points.