RBD’s Top CFB Pick: EMU at CMU

This week’s play:
Eastern Michigan

I like to use my articles to offer my years of experience running a book and betting on sports to teach and help others. There was a time in life when I actually thought I might become a teacher, but when I looked into it the pay sucked. (And just between me and you, I was concerned that if I found myself teaching 18 year old girls I might end up becoming one of those teachers you read about in the newspapers. A temptation best avoided, I figured.)

Today’s lesson will be about something you shouldn’t do, although I hope I turn out to be wrong in this particular case.

The lesson – NEVER force a play!
If it fits your system, buy it.
If it narrowly misses, don’t buy it.
It’s as simple as that.

And here is where I don’t follow my own advice. I’ve been making good bank on the play with no name, the one designated by an asterisk in my logbook:
NFL 0-8
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-8
A combined 8-22, 73% Fade.

And best of all, most of them have been shared right here at PredictEm, in either my homepage articles or in the forum, so you guys can share in the fun and $$$.

What I particularly like about the asterisk play is it’s been working across all three sports I’ve applied it to.
And with the NBA regular season starting next week I’m anxious to see if it’ll work there, too.

This week, only one team qualified in college, and the pros, Troy, on Tuesday.
I couldn’t submit it in time for a homepage column, so I gave it out in the forum.
South ‘Bama was laying -9.
They won by 16.

And now I have:
NFL 0-8
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-9
A combined 8-23, 74% Fade.

But, as I said, unfortunately, there are no other plays that qualify this week.

But Eastern Michigan barely misses, which is rare for this system, few games qualify, most don’t come close. One of the parameters is a point spread differential of seven points between my two systems for identifying Wrong Favs, WF1, and WF2.
The differential for the Eastern Michigan game is 6′.
And so, in this game, I’m once again testing the theory that you don’t force fit a pick; it either qualifies or it doesn’t.
EM is 4-2 overall and a stellar 5-1 ATS.
CM is 3-3, 2-3-1 ATS.
Both teams are 1-1 in the MAC.

WF2 record on Rd teams like Central Michigan (the Fade team this week) is 22-25; no real edge in Fading them.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles won four of their first five games before falling last week to Miami Oh, 14-38.
The Chippewas dropped three of their last five including a 25-27 loss to Ohio in their last game.

Last year, Central, at home, beat Eastern 26-23. Eastern took the 2022 contest 38-19.

C. Mich has yet to win on the Rd this year (0-2), and with a small spread of -2′ E., Mich doesn’t have to win by much to get me an ATS victory.

When to Buy Recommendation:

This one opened at Eastern Michigan -2/-2′, in their homecoming game. When I wrote this analysis yesterday, they were still -2/-2′.
This morning, they’re at -3, which means they no longer barely miss qualifying for the asterisk play. They now miss by 1′.
So, I decided to toss this pick in the garbage and do a write-up on a different game. But then I remembered the old axiom that has saved me at least once or twice already this season: “Never change your original answer on a test. Never change your original pick.”

I screwed up by not buying this earlier in the week at -2′.
The books are now at -3/-3′, with extra juice on the -3.
I bought it at -3, -116.
Pay the extra juice to get the -3.

Recap: 1-1
Record: Though I just did an accounting update last week, I think I spotted an error, so in my next column, I’m going to post every college game and result to ensure I have an accurate record.

Review:

My bet: Coastal Carolina +9′
The score: J. Madison 39 CC 7
Like Custer at Little Bighorn, I may have underestimated this one a bit.
Got it back with the NP Under with App St/La Laf.

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