RBD’s GSU vs. APP Under Play: 9 Potential Picks for Week 9

The NP Play Lives!

“I’m not dead yet.”
“I don’t want to go on the cart.”
“I think I’ll go for a walk.”

(I’m guessing half of you will get that reference the other half will be thinking, “WTF is he talking about this time???”)

The NP Under has risen like Lazarus!
(I used Lazarus there instead of the more famous guy who also rose from the dead because I want nothing even remotely resembling blasphemy in my articles, Not because I’m religious but because you never know if He exists or not. Why risk jinxing my bets, eh?)

After weeks with no plays, I suddenly have NINE this week.
Four games qualify at a 7 point differential or more, five qualify at 5 points or more (5 is the number I used for the four years previous to this season, 134-81, 62%).

This year, the record for plays with a 7-point differential is 17-7.
At five points, it’s 1-0.

I’m suspicious though.
Weeks with no games qualifying then all of a sudden I have nine? This tells me tread lightly, just to make sure the math is correct and the play still works.

I’ll post all nine spots in the forum for record keeping and in case anyone’s looking for angles on those games.
I already bought one:
Geo St/App St Un

Let’s take a closer look.
Both teams are mired in the muck at the bottom of the Sun Belt conference, East division, with identical records of 2-4.
Geo St games average 51 pts.
App St games average 63.

The books hung a 63 on this game.
Five of six Geo St games have stayed Under 63.
Four of six App State games have stayed Under 63.
Those stats look good to me for my play on the Under. If consistency holds out for both teams, 63 is a favorable number.
But the reason I chose this one out of the nine games that qualify is this:
Georgia State has not appeared in this spot this season, but App State has.
Twice.
And I bought and recommended both.

On September 14th, I used App St Un 60 for a forum pick in their game against East Carolina.
The game stayed under by 20 pts.

I used them again for my homepage column pick, dated October 13th.
The total was 65.
App St and La Laf combined for 58.

App St is 2-0 in this spot.
And like I always say, I like to stick with what works until it doesn’t.

When to Buy Recommendation
Opened at 62′. Right now, the board is split between 62′ and 63.
I don’t see this one going higher, so I bought it this morning.

Today’s play:

Geo St/App St Un 63

Recap: 2-0
Record: *12-5

Review: For me, it was, by far, the most exciting weekend in college football.
I hit both homepage bets, USC/Maryland Ov 56′ and Eastern Michigan -3, but BOTH games looked like losers.

The E Mich play looked so bad that I gave up on it and changed the channel! (“O ye of little faith.”)
C Mich scored a touchdown to open the fourth quarter and take an 18-point lead. A three-point Fav, down by 18, with only 11 minutes left in the game? No sense wasting time watching this one anymore.

I’m watching my USC/Maryland money when I see the score at the bottom of the screen – E Mich are only down by three points with just over a minute left.
And they’ve got the ball!
How the hell did that happen??!!

I switched back to watch and hope that the Eagles get a TD and not a game-tying FG, which could lead to a push or loss in OT.
They get the TD, and I win by a point with about a minute left.

I switch back to USC/Maryland.
I need 57 points to go Over the 56′.
I’m at a good pace, 28 points at halftime, but a 7 pt third quarter puts me in trouble. I need 22 pts in 13 minutes, even three TD’s leaves me short by the hook.

USC gets a TD, I’m at 42 points now.
At the 10 minute mark, Maryland not only scores a TD but they go for the two-point conversion – and they make it!
I’m sitting at 50 with under a minute left to go. I need the TD and the extra point. Maryland, down six, gets the TD.
And the extra point.
I win by the hook with 53 seconds left on the clock.

Two winners that looked like sure losers.
Two wins, one by one point, one by the hook.
Both with about a minute to go.
THAT’S action.
THAT’S what I love about college football.
(Well, that and the money.)

* I mentioned last week that I thought I saw a mistake on my record and wanted to do a review. All home page plays end results are listed in my post in the PredictEm college football forum.