Razorbacks at Gators Pick – Get Our Betting Predictions

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6 SU, ATS 3-4) vs Florida Gators (5-3 SU, ATS 3-4)

Date: Saturday, November 4th

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: Ark +6/Fla -6 (Are you betting at the best sportsbooks?)

Money Line: Arkansas +189/Florida -239

Over/Under: 48.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Florida Gators matchup in an SEC showdown at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 48.5 while Florida is favored by -6.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Arkansas and Florida did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, Arkansas has a record of 2-1. Arkansas also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 47 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Arkansas Razorbacks Recent Form:

Carrying an overall record of 2-6, Arkansas is ready to take on this game. However, their most recent contest ended in disappointment as they fell to Mississippi State with a final score of 7-3.

Leading up to the game, Arkansas was favored to win by 7.5, handing them an ATS and straight-up defeat. The under ended up hitting as the line going into the game was 47.

KJ Jefferson finished with 97 yards against Mississippi State while going 19 for 31 for a completion percentage of 61.3%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.

Despite carrying the ball 14 times against Mississippi State, Rashod Dubinion was unable to score a rushing touchdown and finished with 47 yards in the game for Arkansas. Arkansas’ most productive receiver in the game was Andrew Armstrong, who finished with 35 on four receptions.

Against Mississippi State, the Razorbacks’ defense was excellent against Mississippi State, giving up just 7 points on 346 yards allowed. Mississippi State’s passing game finished with 161 yards. Up-front, Arkansas gave up 5.4 yards per attempt. The Razorbacks’ defense has given up 132.5 rushing yards per game this season, which is 144th. Opponents are recording an average of 201.4 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks come in with a passer rating of 93.7 when playing against Arkansas. In terms of points allowed, they currently sit 60th in NCAA rankings.

Away Injury Report

Florida Gators Recent Form:

Florida’s overall record dropped to 5-3 after their most recent loss to Georgia. The Gators lost the game by a score of 43-20.

Looking at the over/under in this matchup, the line was 49.5, and with their 63 points, the over hit. Against the spread, Florida went into the game as 13.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS and straight-up loss.

Quarterback Graham Mertz finished with 230 passing yards in the team’s most recent loss over Georgia. Not only did he throw for two touchdowns, but he ran for one score.

Montrell Johnson Jr. was the primary rusher for Florida vs. Georgia, with 82 rushing yards, carrying the ball nine times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. Leading Florida in receiving against Georgia was Ricky Pearsall. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 99 yards on six receptions.

The Gators’ defense finished the game by giving up 489 total yards to Georgia. The team’s run defense allowed 174 yards rushing compared to 315 in the passing game. Coming into their matchup vs. Arkansas, the Florida defense is 84th in points allowed, giving up 22.9 points per game. So far, opponents have averaged 203.5 passing yards per game against them (54th in the country). Against the run, they’re allowing 132.9 rushing yards, which ranks them 65th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Looking at Arkansas’ three most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 3-0.
• Looking across Florida’s three most recent home games, they are 1-2 against the spread.
• Looking back at the last five times Florida went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 2-3.
• Arkansas’ record vs. the spread in their three most recent games as the favorite is 0-3.

Free Pick

Although Arkansas comes in with just a 2-6 record, I like them against the spread at +6. Both teams are at 3-4 for the season vs. the spread and I see the line at +6 being too high. I’m going to lock in the Razorbacks at +6.