Quick Lane Bowl Pick: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota Top Bet

Bowling Green Falcons (7-5 SU, ATS 7-4) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7 SU, ATS 3-8)

Date: 2:00 EST Tuesday, December 26th

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: BGSU +5.5/Min -5.5

Money Line: B. Green +180/Minn  -219

Over/Under: 37.5

The Bowling Green Falcons and Minnesota Golden Gophers matchup in a non-conference showdown at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. The over/under for this matchup is currently 37.5, while Minnesota is favored by -5.5.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, Bowling Green and Minnesota did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, Minnesota has the leg up at 2-1. The over/under record in these games was 2-1, with the teams averaging 53 points per game combined. Minnesota went 3-0 vs. the spread.

Bowling Green Falcons Recent Form:

With a 34-10 win over Western Michigan, Bowling Green’s record now stands at 7-5 as they head into this week’s matchup with Minnesota.

Bowling Green was favored by 2.5 heading into the game, giving them both a straight-up and ATS win. The under hit in the game, as the team’s combined for 44 with an over/under line of 51.5.

In the win to Western Michigan, quarterback Connor Bazelak concluded with a QB rating of 120.19 while connecting on 18 of 26 passes for 217 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Ta’ron Keith carried the ball 13 times against Western Michigan, leading the team with 66 yards and one touchdown. For the game, Harold Fannin Jr. hauled in eight receptions for a total of 99 yards which led the team.

Against Western Michigan, the Falcons’ defense was excellent against Western Michigan, giving up just 10 points on 258 yards allowed. Western Michigan’s passing game finished with 123 yards. Up-front, Bowling Green gave up 3.3 yards per attempt. Bowling Green comes into the game 85th in points allowed, allowing 23.5 points per game. Teams have been gaining 192.7 passing yards on average against them (42nd). Against the run, they’re giving up 137.6 yards, placing them 59th in college football.

Away Injury Report

Minnesota Golden Gophers Recent Form:

Minnesota comes into this game with an overall record of 5-7. In their most recent game, they fell to Wisconsin by a score of 28-14.

Going into the game, Minnesota was the 2.5-point underdogs, and in addition to losing straight-up, they did not cover the spread. The team’s combined 42 points were not enough to surpass the over/under line of 46.

In the loss to Wisconsin, quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis concluded with a QB rating of 71.58 while connecting on 16 of 28 passes for 167 yards. Moreover, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

Jordan Nubin led the ground attack for Minnesota against Wisconsin. He accumulated 93 rushing yards and reached the endzone one time in 24 attempts. In terms of receiving, Daniel Jackson was the standout for the team, finding the endzone one time and securing nine balls for 121 yards.

The Golden Gophers’ defense finished the game by giving up 412 total yards to Wisconsin. The team’s run defense allowed 267 yards rushing compared to 145 in the passing game. The Golden Gophers defense comes into the game with 23 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 26.9 points per game (104th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 85th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 219.2 passing yards per game. Additionally, Minnesota’s run defense comes in allowing 154.9 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Bowling Green is 3-0 ATS in their last road games.
• Looking across Minnesota’s ten most recent home games, they are 3-7 against the spread.
• Looking back at the last ten times Minnesota went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 4-6.
• Over their last five games as the betting favorite, Bowling Green has an ATS record of 4-1.

Free Pick

Bowling Green, just two points shy of a six-game win streak, has shown resilience, with their sole recent loss by a narrow 1-point margin to Toledo, a top MAC team. On the other hand, Minnesota is on a four-game losing streak, with their losses mostly against lower-tier Big Ten teams, except Ohio State. Both teams faced Michigan, with Minnesota suffering a more severe 52-10 defeat compared to Bowling Green. Given this context, Bowling Green at +5 seems a compelling pick, as they’ve demonstrated competitiveness even against stronger teams, while Minnesota’s recent form raises doubts about their ability to cover the spread.