Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Pick & Analysis

Purdue Boilermakers (2-3 SU, ATS 2-3) vs Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1 SU, ATS 2-2-1)

Date: Saturday, October 7th

Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: Pur +2.5/IA -2.5 (STOP wasting money! STOP betting on games at -110 odds! Start saving big bucks by laying -105 at BAS Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Boilers +117/Hawkeyes -143

Over/Under: 41

The Purdue Boilermakers and Iowa Hawkeyes matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, IA. The over/under for this matchup is currently 41, while Iowa is favored by -2.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Iowa will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 24-3 win over Purdue. In the win, the Iowa offense outgained Purdue 376 to 255. In the passing game, Iowa finished with 192 yards and 184 on the ground.

Purdue Boilermakers Recent Form:

With an overall record of 2-3, Purdue faces off against Iowa. Their most recent performance resulted in a win against Illinois, with a score of 44-19.

Going into the game, the oddsmakers had this one as a pick em, giving Purdue an ATS win. The team’s combined 63 points surpassed the over/under line of 54.

In the win against Illinois, quarterback Hudson Card achieved a QB rating of 120.19, completing 18 of 26 passes for 217 yards. Additionally, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Purdue’s leading rusher against Illinois was Tyrone Tracy Jr., who rushed for 112 yards and found the endzone one time on 21 carries. Deion Burks emerged as the team’s top receiver, scoring one touchdown and making five receptions for 83 yards.

The Boilermakers’ defense finished the game by giving up 375 total yards to Illinois. The team’s run defense allowed 149 yards rushing compared to 226 in the passing game. Coming into their matchup vs. Iowa, the Purdue defense is 95th in points allowed, giving up 29.6 points per game. So far, opponents have averaged 249.8 passing yards per game against them (126th in the country). Against the run, they’re allowing 148.4 rushing yards, which ranks them 95th in college football.

Away Injury Report

Iowa Hawkeyes Recent Form:

Iowa’s record has improved to 4-1 following their 26-16 win against Michigan State as they prepare for this week’s showdown with Purdue.

On the point spread, Iowa went into the game favored by 10. This gave each team an ATS push, while their combined 42 points allowed the over to hit as the line was 36.

In the win vs. Michigan State, quarterback Deacon Hill concluded with a QB rating of 50.69, connecting on 11 of 27 passes for 115 yards. He also added one touchdown to his performance.

Iowa’s leading rusher against Michigan State was Leshon Williams, who ran for 38 yards on 12 times. Leshon Williams did not run for a score against Michigan State. Erick All was the go-to receiver for the team, finding the endzone one time and securing four balls for 67 yards.

The Hawkeyes’ defense finished the game by giving up 349 total yards to Michigan State. The team’s run defense allowed 156 yards rushing compared to 193 in the passing game. The Hawkeyes defense faces off against Purdue with three sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re giving up 16.8 points per game, which is 48th in the nation. Against the pass, they’re 39th in the NCAA, allowing 182.6 passing yards per game. Iowa’s run defense is yielding 138.2 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Looking at Purdue’s ten most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 6-4.
• Looking across Iowa’s ten most recent home games, they are 7-2-1 against the spread.
• In the five most recent times they were the underdog, Iowa has put together an ATS record of 3-2.
• Purdue’s record vs. the spread in their five most recent games as the favorite is 1-4.

Line Movement:

In the context of the current moneyline odds, Purdue currently holds a 46% implied win probability, accompanied by a moneyline payout of +117. On the flip side, Hawkeyes’ implied win percentage is 59% with a moneyline of -143. Starting as 4 point favorites at home, Iowa has seen the lines shift to -2.5. The over/under market has seen alterations from its opening at 41, now resting at 40.5.

Crew’s Quick Take: Michigan vs. Iowa

McNamara and Michigan’s Situation

Look, McNamara isn’t exactly an elite QB, but compared to what Iowa’s dealing with, Michigan is in a much better spot.

Iowa’s QB Woes

Deacon Hill might be their best option right now, and that’s saying something. Iowa is in a bit of a pickle at the quarterback position.

Purdue: The Confidence Booster

Purdue is coming off a morale-boosting 44-19 win over Illinois. They’re back on track and looking to capitalize.

Iowa’s Defensive Wall

• Kept all but Penn State to 16 points or fewer this season

Can’t ignore Iowa’s defense; they’re still a force to be reckoned with.

Historical Context

Last season, Iowa took it 24-3 at Purdue, marking the fourth straight Under in the series.

The Pick: Take the Under 38.5

Given the offensive struggles and strong defenses, I’m rolling with the Under this week. It’s a trend that’s been consistent in this matchup. I also am leaning to Purdue but I think they fit better in a teaser wager getting over a TD.

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