Purdue at Illinois Point Spread Pick & Analysis Week 7

Purdue Boilermakers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1, 4-0-1), 10/12/24

When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 12

Where: Memorial Stadium

TV: FS1

CFB betting odds: Pur +19.5/Ill -19.5

Money line: Boilers +800/Fighting Illini -1400

Over/under: 49.5

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Longtime border rivals meet for the 100th time when Illinois and Purdue battle for the Purdue Cannon on Saturday afternoon in Champaign.

The Illini, coming off a bye week, seek another victory in their quest for bowl eligibility, after missing out last season. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are coming off the latest of their poor performances, a blowout loss at Wisconsin.

Can the Illini cover a nearly three-touchdown point spread? Or does Purdue keep this one close?

The Line

The CFB Week 7 betting market opened Illinois at -18.5 over Purdue, with an O/U of around 49. Early betting action bumped that spread to 19.5.

Purdue Betting Preview

The Boilermakers are 1-4 on the season after falling at Wisconsin last Saturday 52-6. Purdue fell down 14-0 early, pulled to within 14-6 late in the second quarter, but gave up the last 38 points of the game and whiffed ATS as an 11-point underdog.

The Boilers got out-gained by the Badgers 589-216, converted just 1/11 on 3rd downs, and managed only a pair of field goals on two possessions inside the Wisconsin 5-yard line. This is Purdue’s first game since making a change at the offensive coordinator spot.

Two games ago the Boilermakers managed just 224 yards of offense and one garbage touchdown in a 28-10 loss at Nebraska. Three games ago Purdue gave up 341 yards on the ground and lost to Oregon State 38-21. And four games ago the Boilers got bombed by Notre Dame 66-7.

Purdue was expected to finish near the bottom of the Big 10 this season, but they weren’t supposed to be this bad. And from here on out the Boilermakers might only have one winnable game on their schedule.

Illinois Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Illini took their first loss of the season two weeks ago at Penn State 21-7. Illinois then had last week off.

The Illini, as 19-point dogs at Happy Valley, scored the first seven points of the game. But Illinois came up totally empty offensively from there, as the Nittany Lions took control, although the Illini did hang on for the money.

Illinois got out-gained by Penn State 374-219, out-rushed 239-34, and lost the turnover battle 2-0. The Illini also came up with nothing on a 1st-and-goal from the Lions’ 2-yard line when a field goal would have given them an early lead.

Two games ago Illinois won at Nebraska 31-24 in OT. Three games ago the Illini held Central Michigan to three field goals and won 30-9. And four games ago the Illini beat Kansas 23-17.

Illinois was expected to finish somewhere in the bottom half of the Big 10 this season but it’s 1-1 after playing a couple of the tougher conference games on its slate. From here the Illini get four of their last seven games at home and should be favored for at least four of their last seven.

Purdue-Illinois Recent History

The Boilermakers are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS over the last eight meetings with the Illini. Last year’s game was 16-13 at the half but Purdue pulled away in the second half to win 44-19.

Our guess is Saturday’s game will play out a little differently.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-2 in Boilers games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.

Unders are 4-1 in Illini games, which are averaging 41 points.

Free College Football Pick

Thanks in large part to Purdue’s porous run defense – they’re allowing 239 YPG on the ground this season – we expect Illinois to win the ground battle in this contest. And if you can’t stop the run, you’re usually in big trouble. Can the Boilermakers score enough to keep this one close? Well, they scored one garbage touchdown two weeks ago and none last week, so that sounds like an iffy proposition. Also, in these teams’ one game against a common opponent this season, the Illini out-gained Nebraska by 36 yards while the Boilers got out-gained by the ‘Huskers by 194. Does that equate to 20 points? It’s a good start. We’ll give the points with Illinois this week.

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