Penn State vs. Wisconsin Week 9 Predictions: Can the Nittany Lions Keep Rolling?

Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, ATS 2-3)  vs Wisconsin Badgers (5-2 SU, ATS 3-3)

Date: 7:30 EST Saturday, October 26th

Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI

TV: NBC

Point Spread: PSU -6.5/WIS +6.5

Money Line: Penn St. -239/Wisc  +196

Over/Under: 47.5

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At 7:30 ET, Penn State and Wisconsin will face off at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Penn State is undefeated this season at 6-0, while Wisconsin comes in with a 5-2 record. The Nittany Lions are favored at -6.5 points, and the over/under line is currently at 47.5 points. The game will be broadcast on NBC, and the money line odds are -239 for Penn State and +196 for Wisconsin.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Wisconsin Badgers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Penn State Nittany Lions have a record of 3-0. The Penn State Nittany Lions also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 66 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Penn State Nittany Lions Recent Form:

Heading into Week 9 against Wisconsin, Penn State is 6-0 and ranks 9th in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 17.2% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions also have a 73.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff, the 6th best odds in the country.

Penn State has a +19.7 average scoring margin this season, and they’ve been favored in five of their six games. Their ATS record stands at 2-3, with a 1-0 mark on the road and 1-3 at home.

The over/under line for this week is 47.5 points. Penn State’s games have averaged 48.7 points, with an average over/under line of 51 points. Their over/under record is 1-4, with four games going under 47.5 points.

Heading into week 9, Penn State’s offense is averaging 34.2 points per game, ranking 25th nationally. However, they are 14th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 1,492 yards with a passer rating of 117. He has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing 70.5% of his passes. Penn State ranks 7th in passer rating and 6th in completion percentage nationally.

On third downs, the Nittany Lions convert 48.5% of their attempts, ranking 15th. They average 203.5 rushing yards per game. Nicholas Singleton leads the ground attack with 434 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Harrison Wallace III is the leading receiver with 283 yards and two touchdowns.

Despite allowing 30 points in their recent overtime win against USC, Penn State’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 6th nationally by giving up just 14.5 points per game. They held USC to 82 rushing yards but allowed 336 passing yards, though they did manage to force an interception.

Opponents are averaging 99.3 rushing yards per game on 29.2 attempts against Penn State, while quarterbacks have completed 54.3% of their passes for an average of 167.5 yards and a passer rating of 72.6.

Away Injury Report

Wisconsin Badgers Recent Form:

Wisconsin enters Week 9 with a 5-2 record, ranked 25th in our CFB power rankings. They have a 96.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but just a 0.9% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Badgers are 2-1 at home and 2-1 on the road this season.

They are 3-0 as the favorite and 1-2 as the underdog, with an average scoring margin of +11.4 points per game. Against the spread, Wisconsin is 3-3, going 2-1 on the road and 1-2 at home.

Their over/under record is 4-2, with an average total of 46.6 points per game. This week’s line is set at 47.5 points, right around their average over/under line for the season.

Wisconsin’s offense is centered around their run game, ranking 15th in rushing attempts and averaging 194.3 yards per game. Tawee Walker leads the team with 565 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. The Badgers are scoring 29 points per game, and they are 33rd in third-down conversions, with a 43.6% success rate.

Quarterback Braedyn Locke has thrown for 1,064 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. He has a passer rating of 86, and Wisconsin ranks 78th in passing yards per game. Vinny Anthony II leads the receivers with 314 yards and two touchdowns.

Wisconsin’s defense was impressive in their 23-3 victory over Northwestern, allowing just three points and giving up only nine first downs. They held Northwestern to 210 total yards, including 82 passing yards on nine completions from 24 attempts.

For the season, Wisconsin ranks 18th nationally, allowing 17.6 points per game. They are 12th in the country in passing yards allowed, giving up just 155.9 yards per game, and have held opposing quarterbacks to a 54.9% completion rate.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Penn State Nittany Lions have a straight-up record of 9-1 while going 8-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 37 points per game in these contests.
• Across their ten previous home games, Wisconsin has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4, averaging 26 points per game.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Wisconsin Badgers have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 1-2.
• Although the Penn State Nittany Lions have a strong straight-up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs. the spread going 1-4.

Free Pick

After looking bad against Alabama and then giving a game away vs USC, the Badgers have turned their season around with a couple of big wins. However, time and time again, the Badgers have shown they can’t compete with the big boys. Even with this one being in Madison, look for Penn State to win this one and cover the spread. Wisconsin has a young QB, and the Nittany Lions should be able to slow down the Badgers rush attack. I’m taking Penn State at -6.5.

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