Penn State vs. Boise State Predictions: CFP Quarterfinal Best Bets & Betting Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2 SU, 7-7 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (12-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 7:30PM EST
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN

The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Boise State Broncos in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal on Tuesday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. It’s a huge game where the winner is that much closer to having a chance to play for the title. Boise State last played on December 6, beating UNLV for the conference title and putting a cap on a 12-1 regular season where a 3-point loss to top-ranked Oregon in the second game of the season was their only setback. Penn State, meanwhile, lost to Oregon in their conference title game before scoring a 38-10 win over SMU in the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff format on the 21st. Who can move on in what figures to be a good game out of Arizona?

First Impressions Going In

This format offers some new wrinkles, one being that the lower-ranked teams enter this game less rusty, having needed to beat a tough team to get here, as the Nittany Lions did with SMU. Meanwhile, Boise has been off. There might also be some conference-bias at play in this game on the part of some, who have the not-totally-misplaced feeling that Big Ten teams this time a year have been through so much more than your average Mountain West team. And while Boise did everything asked of them, coming close to beating Oregon and holding two wins over a good UNLV team, it still doesn’t really touch the work of a good Big Ten team like Penn State.

You could point out some bad moments for the Nittany Lions this season, how they lost to Ohio State and Oregon later in the year, not even showing they’re the best or even second-best team in their conference. But I’m not sure it gets a lot better when you look at some troubling sequences this season for the Broncos. Their last game, where they went scoreless in the second half against a deflated UNLV team, was not terribly inspiring. A few weeks before that, they needed a 4th quarter score to beat a Wyoming team that ended up 3-9. They almost let San Jose State get the jump on them in a weird first half just before that. So while Boise State has been winning, and their only loss in an excusable one, it’s not like they’ve been mowing everyone down.

Points to Consider

For those who can’t get the conference issue out of their heads, these teams’ respective performances against Oregon might be revealing. And sure, Oregon was a different team with a different headspace in the conference title game against Penn State than they were in a week two spot against Boise. But I don’t think Oregon took that game lightly against the Broncos and still needed two special teams, TDs, and a game-winning FG to beat Boise. Also, do-everything Boise back Ashton Jeanty was huge against Oregon, showing his work translates at the highest level. I’d look for Boise to really turn it up on Penn State, take it right to them with Jeanty, and try to smack them in the mouth.

Boise backers should be concerned at some of the offensive pep we’ve seen from the Nittany Lions in recent showings. The bulk of their offensive firepower is contained within their backs Kaytron Allen Nicholas Singleton, along with super tight end talent Tyler Warren. Warren and Singleton have been target hogs. If Boise State, who has shown a good run-defense this season, can curtail their two main backs and focus on Warren in the pass-game, Penn State’s other options aren’t that wonderful. Not that Penn State QB Drew Allar doesn’t have other weapons he can deploy, but if Boise can curtail Singleton and Warren, that’s a big part of the battle right there.

Issues for Boise State

On one hand, a person could say the Broncos are a bit of a one-trick pony, with their heavy reliance on Ashton Jeanty. And while Maddux Madsen has come along and can be dangerous in his own right with his aerial weaponry, it’s basically the Jeanty Show. So, while Boise could maybe put a crimp in Penn State’s offense by shutting down a few or several guys, Penn State could do the same by putting the squeeze on just one guy. And with Boise having played Oregon in week two, it’s been weeks upon weeks of them playing teams whose rushing defenses only have a fraction of the talent Penn State brings to the table in that department. Jeanty still figures to get his regardless, and they’re not going to need Madsen to go for 400 yards, but they will need him. Say what you will about Penn State and how they’ve done at times under head coach James Franklin. But they usually win they’re supposed to, and that’s what they’re supposed to do here as double-digit favorites.

Take the Points

I get the feeling that this is reality sandwich time for a Boise team where you can’t help but be a little suspicious of their chances to thrive in this playoff. I still think too much stock can be put in the things being cited to low-rate the Broncos in this spot. I don’t think Jeanty needed Mountain West defenses to get to where he was this season, as I think his excellence will translate at this level. Penn State may have edges on both sides of the ball—a more-complete and diverse offense with a defense that can both get to Jeanty and keep Madsen from lending some balance to the Boise offense. I just sense a pumped-up Boise with a good game from Jeanty being enough to keep this one within range, as Boise State gets the cover in this one. I’ll take the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

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