Penn State at Ohio State Point Spread Pick & Analysis

Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS) at Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 3-3), 10/21/23

When: Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 21

Where: Ohio Stadium

TV: Fox

CFB Betting Odds

Point Spread: Penn St +4.5 / Ohio St -4.5 (Make sure you’re wagering at the best betting sites on the web!)

Money Line: PSU +165, OSU -195

Over/Under: 48

It’s the first Really Big Game in the Big 10 this season when Ohio State hosts Penn State Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe in Columbus.

Both teams are undefeated in conference play, as expected, and both teams have games against Michigan coming up. So, this game will likely have a huge impact not just in the Big 10 but on the College Football Playoff scene.

The Buckeyes are favored over the Nittany Lions for the 14th straight meeting, but 4.5 points is the second-lowest spread over the last 10. And Penn State has cashed in six of the last seven meetings.

NCAAF Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting market opened Ohio State at -4.5 over Penn State, with an over/under of right around 48. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Penn State-Ohio State Betting Preview

The Nittany Lions used last week as a tune-up for this week, beating a bad Massachusetts team 63-0. Penn State started a bit slowly in a cold rain against the Minutemen but led 28-0 by halftime, poured it on from there, and covered at -42.

Four games ago, the Lions opened their Big 10 slate with a 30-13 victory at Illinois, covering at -14. That game fit perfectly with one of our main football handicapping theories, in that playing on the road meant the spread was a little more manageable. If that game were played up at Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions probably would not have covered.

Penn State then blanked Iowa 31-0, covering easily at -14, then won at Northwestern 41-13, again just covering on the road at -27.

The Nittany Lions returned 16 starters this season from a team that played 7-2 in the Big 10 last season. And while they’re playing with a new starting QB, he seems to be working out; sophomore Drew Allar owns a 12/0 TD/INT ratio so far.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are also 3-0 in Big 10 play after disposing of Purdue last week 41-7. Ohio State, favored by 17 points on the road, led 20-0 at the half, then scored the first 14 points of the second half and eased home from there.

The Buckeyes out-gained the Boilermakers 486-257.

Two games ago, Ohio State beat Maryland 37-17, although they actually trailed that game 17-10 midway into the third quarter before waking up and pulling away. And three games ago, the Buckeyes won at Notre Dame 17-14 on a touchdown on the last play of the game.

Ohio State returned 14 starters this season from a team that played 8-1 in the Big 10 last season. The Buckeyes are also playing with a new starting QB, although that situation hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as Penn State’s.

On the injury front, Ohio State is banged up in the offensive backfield. Bettors might want to consult later reports before getting down on this game.

Penn State-Ohio State Recent History

The Buckeyes own a six-game winning streak over the Nittany Lions, but Penn State is 5-1 ATS over that span, keeping games close while catching points. Last year, in a game that exploded in the fourth quarter, Ohio State won at Beaver Stadium 44-31, but the Lions covered at +15.

College Football Betting Trends

The Buckeyes are 2-5-1 ATS their last eight times favored by single digits.

Totals Report

The overs are 4-2 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The unders are 5-1 in Buckeyes games, which are averaging 46 points.

The unders are 3-1-1 over the last five meetings between these teams, although that’s mainly thanks to some large totals.

Free College Football Betting Pick

We give Penn State the check-mark with the better running game and quite possibly the better defense. And that’s usually enough for us right there. Plus, the Nittany Lions have given Ohio State real headaches over recent seasons. Also, Penn State led the Buckeyes in the fourth quarter last year, and it’s probably a better team right now than it was that day. We like the Lions, and they might win this game outright.