Penn State at Maryland Pick: Lay the Points?

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) at Maryland Terrapins (5-3, 3-5), 11/4/23

When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 4

Where: SECU Stadium

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Penn St. -9.5/Mary +9.5

Money line: Penn St. -400/Mary +310

Over/under: 50

Penn State tries to stay alive in the Big 10 East while Maryland tries to become bowl-eligible when the teams meet Saturday afternoon in College Park.

The Nittany Lions own the all-time series with the Terrapins 42-3-1 and they’re favored by almost double digits to continue that dominance Saturday.

NCAAF Betting Odds

Week 10’s college football betting market opened Penn State at -10 over Maryland, with an over/under of right around 50. Early betting action shaved that spread to 9.5.

Penn State-Maryland Betting Preview

The Nittany Lions recovered just enough from their loss at Ohio State two weeks ago to beat Indiana last Saturday 33-24. Penn State, favored by a ridiculous 31 points, trailed the Hoosiers 14-7 well into the second quarter. The Lions later went up 24-14, allowed Indiana to tie the game at 24-24 with three minutes left but took the lead for good on a long touchdown pass and held on to avoid the upset.

But Penn State never came close to approaching that point spread.

The Lions actually got out-gained by the Hoosiers 349-342. However, 159 of the yards the Penn State defense gave up came on two plays. Which means they held Indiana to 190 yards on the other 51 plays.

The Nittany Lions started 6-0 this season, although the best team they faced during that span was probably West Virginia. Penn State then managed just one meaningless touchdown in that 20-12 loss to the Buckeyes.

At 4-1 in Big Ten play the Nittany Lions trail Michigan and Ohio State by one game in the East Division. But they get the Wolverines at Happy Valley next week. If the cards fall just right Penn State could still win the division.

Meanwhile, the Terrapins lug a three-game losing skid into Saturday after falling at Northwestern last Saturday 33-27. Maryland, favored by two touchdowns, trailed 24-17 at the half. The Terps later pulled to within six points, got the ball back late and drove inside Wildcats territory but threw an interception.

Maryland out-gained Northwestern 391-364 but lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in at least a -7 points differential.

The Terrapins started 5-0 this season and led Ohio State 17-10 in the third quarter. But they gave up the last 27 points to lose that game 37-17, then got upset at home by Illinois 27-24, then fell to Northwestern.

At 5-3 overall Maryland only needs one win over its last four games to become bowl-eligible. But it won’t be easy.

Penn State-Maryland Recent History

The Nittany Lions are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings with the Terps, winning six of those games by double digits. Last year Penn State held Maryland to 134 total yards, won 30-0 and covered easily at -11.

College Football Betting Trends

Penn State is 6-0 ATS its last six games favored on the road.

Totals Report

The overs are 5-3 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 50 points.

The totals are split 4-4 in Terps games, which are averaging 53 points.

The unders are 5-0 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Penn State owns the better running game and the better defense and that right there is almost enough for us. Also, following a lackluster performance last week we expect a sharper performance from the Nittany Lions this week. Plus, playing on the road means the spread is a bit more amenable. We’re playing Penn State Saturday, minus the points.