Peach Bowl Pick: Ole Miss vs. Penn State Analysis & Predictions

No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) vs. No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Betting Preview

Date/Time: Saturday, December 30th, 2023. 12:00 PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: MISS +4/PSU -4

Moneyline: MISS +150/PSU -170

Total: 48.5

The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl has historically featured some incredible matchups throughout the bowl season history, and that trend is expected to continue when a pair of 10-2 ball clubs from the SEC and Big Ten collide inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. On one side of the field, the Ole Miss Rebels recently captured their 2nd 10-win season in the last 3 years under Head Coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin has turned the Rebels into an offensive powerhouse, which will lead to an intriguing matchup against a defensively oriented program in the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The Nittany Lions flirted with a potential college football playoff berth throughout the season. After reaching heights that included a 6-0 SU start and a number 7 ranking, the Nittany Lions suffered extremely close losses to no. 3 Ohio State and Michigan, who were also ranked 3rd at that point in time. Aside from those two close losses to national powerhouses, the Nittany Lions had a solid season yet again under Head Coach James Franklin and produced the best defense in college football which allowed just 223 yards per game on the season. For this intriguing Peach Bowl matchup, the Nittany Lions will lean heavily on their #1 defense as they look to stymie the Rebels’ potent offensive attack.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Analysis

From an analytical perspective, this matchup between the Rebels and Nittany Lions fascinates me in so many ways. Penn State’s defense posted some of the best numbers seen in recent memory, which included yielding opponents to a measly 69 yards per game on the ground and 223 yards per game overall. The Nittany Lions ranked 1st in college football in both of those categories. Without question, this is a very talented defense, but Penn State has the luxury of playing in a more traditional run-heavy conference. Will the Nittany Lions’ defense be able to produce similar results against a heavily passing-oriented offense in Ole Miss?

In many ways, the Rebels’ offense is more than a one-dimensional passing attack. After all, RB Quinshon Judkins rushed for 1,052 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Additionally, QB Jaxon Dart added 377 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground as well. With that being said, I don’t think Ole Miss has the physicality to run the ball at will against this Penn State defense. Therefore, I expect Jaxon Dart to be relied on heavily in the passing attack along with a talented Rebels receiving corps. Dart has been a high-percentage passer throughout the season, producing 20 touchdowns and just five picks, and I think he gives Ole Miss the best opportunity to keep the chains moving.

Perhaps the bigger concern in this matchup is how the Penn State rushing offense stacks up against an inferior Ole Miss run defense. The Rebels allowed more than 150 yards per game this season on the ground, and that run defense was the big liability in the losses to Alabama and Georgia. Considering Penn State’s relentless running attack with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, there is a good possibility that Penn State could wear down the Ole Miss defense on the ground, especially if their defense is able to get off the field.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends

• Ole Miss is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in five of the last seven games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in nine of the last 11 games as the betting underdog.
• Ole Miss is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four games.
• Penn State is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 games.
• Penn State has hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• Penn State is 15-2 SU in the last 17 games.
• Penn State has hit the “under” in 10 of the last 13 games against SEC opponents.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Prediction

Often, with these postseason bowl matchups, it is about the team that “shows up” that will be victorious. Assuming we don’t have a blank effort from the Nittany Lions, I believe this is a good matchup for this team. Penn State’s pass rush will be critical in this game. If they can keep pressure on Dart, they should win this game, perhaps with ease.

Jay’s Pick: Take Penn State -4