Pac-12 Pick: Washington vs. Oregon State – Betting Insights & Predictions

The Washington Huskies take on the Oregon State Beavers in a Pac-12 battle from Corvallis on Saturday in a key conference battle. The Huskies are unbeaten, vying for a slot in the College Football Playoff, with some major hurdles still in their path—this being one of them. The Beavers are nice and dug in at home, coming off a rollicking 62-17 win over Stanford last week. Washington, meanwhile, was able to beat Utah, 35-28, last week, as they keep stacking up wins. Who can get us the cover this week in Corvallis?

Making Sense of the Point Spread

Certainly, Washington being underdogs in this spot will raise some eyebrows. On one sideline is an unbeaten Washington team, winners of a handful of games over ranked opponents. Then you have an Oregon State team that lost to the Cougars in their only win in Pac-12 play, also losing three weeks ago to Arizona. So why is Oregon State favored? One reason is the site of this game, not an easy place to play in Corvallis, where the Beavers have not come close to tasting defeat this season. Most of the time, when you take the Beavers in this spot, it leads to a win and a cover.

We also see Washington playing opponents dangerously close. Their 10-0 record notwithstanding, they have covered the spread just four times this year. After a 59-22 win over Cal in their conference opener, they beat Arizona by 7, Oregon by 3, Arizona State by 8, Stanford by 9, USC by 10, and Utah by seven last week. On the one hand, winning competitive games at this frequency isn’t something you should use as fodder against Washington, but it’s a delicate dance on the razor’s edge to be in close games week after week with dangerous conference teams.

How Dangerous is Oregon State in this Spot?

We know what Washington can do—flexing a massive aerial game with Michael Penix. Jr., a difference-making running back in Dillon Johnson with a stud receiver crew led by Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. And what their defense lacks in general stoutness, they make up for with big plays. But a home Oregon State defense won’t fold easily. They’ve gotten better over the course of the season, not giving up over 24 points in their last four games, no easy feat with the offenses they’ve been playing. They’re even better at home. The pass-rush comes from many different sources and they can get turnovers, as well, and make splashy plays.

Against a Washington defense that has allowed 103 combined points in their last three games, Oregon State looks to flex their balance and playmaking ability. The Beavers, or any team for that matter, can’t match Washington’s aerial alacrity, but DJ Uiagaleilei has been good this season, commandeering a respectable passing-game with receivers Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden, along with a real good tight end in Jack Velling. It’s a group that can and usually does a lot of damage, especially at home. Making it all come together is a great line that has kept Uiagaleilei well-protected while also spring loose the work of one of the top backs in the Pac-12 with Damien Martinez.

The Case for Washington

The spread provides a case in itself for the Huskies. With Washington having struggled in the area of winning games by a certain amount, maybe just needing to win over being able to come within a couple of points makes them a more-appealing betting choice. They also have a lot to play for, still sitting outside the top four in the College Football Playoff despite a 10-0 mark. There are a lot of different scenarios that could shake out in the Huskies’ favor, but the urgency is certainly present. It has been hard to not notice, however, that while they are unbeaten, and that’s what really counts, a lot of their spots on the road have been grinds where they were fortunate to get some of those wins. Having trouble on the road might not translate so well to coming to Corvallis to take on this tough and well-rounded team.

Still, with a team that can make plays like Washington, you still have to like their chances in this spot. That aerial offense is the truth and even if Penix, Jr’s form has fallen off slightly with more turnovers and whatnot, that line is still excellent, repelling the opposing pass-rush all season, while helping spring loose an underrated running-game. While their defense has made it so the offense has had to most of the heavy lifting, there’s also something to be said for a unit that has managed to see all the close ones go their way. While lacking in a lot of areas, they are at least clutch when it counts.

Take the Points

This seems trappy, where the book knows people will jump on the Huskies at a higher rate in this spot. And for those thinking this is a slam-dunk for the Huskies, they are clearly overlooking what is, in fact a very treacherous spot for Washington as they try to put the finishing touches on their CFP case. It’s not an easy place to play and it does seem due that the Huskies’ luck runs out playing close ones against good opposition. It’s hard to climb through the Pac-12 conference schedule intact when every week is a struggle. Your number is going to come up at some point. I can’t help but think, however, that getting points and needing Washington to just win or even just come really close makes them the pick this week is what will be a very tough spot where this pick could backfire. I’ll still take the Huskies in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Washington Huskies plus 2.5 points. Bet your Week 12 NCAA football picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus from the web’s oldest and most trusted bookie! (Online since the 90’s!) Simply register for a betting account at Everygame Sportsbook, deposit $50 to $500, then go to their Special Offers page and enter PREDICTEM. Your account balance will instantly double!