Pac-12 Bet: UCLA vs Cal Spread Pick 11/25/22
UCLA Bruins (8-3 SU, ATS 6-4-0) vs. California Golden Bears (4-7 SU, ATS 6-5-0)
Date: Friday, November 25th
Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
TV: Fox
Point Spread: Bruins -9/Golden Bears +9 (BAS – Allows you to bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110! Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the years! Bet Smarter!)
Money Line: Bruins -331/Golden Bears +260
Over/Under: 60
RECENT FORM
So far, the Bruins not only had a strong overall record (8-3), but they also played well in Pac-12 play, going 5-3. This season, the Bruins have been favored in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 59.82 leading to an over-under record of 8-2-0.
The Bruins dropped their last game to USC by a score of 48-45. UCLA entered the action as 2.5-point underdogs at home. The team finished the game by throwing for four touchdown passes. Overall, the Bruins had 309 passing yards on a completion percentage of 60.5%. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 204 yards on the ground.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 109.98. So far, he has completed 229 passes for a total of 2694 yards. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from their leading receiver, Jake Bobo. On the season, he has caught 47 for 727 yards. The Bruins have turned to running back Zach Charbonnet a total of 171 times for a total of 1240 rushing yards.
Heading into this week’s game, the Golden Bears have a record of 2-6 in Pac-12 play. Their overall record currently sits at 4-7. This season, the Golden Bears have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 50.05 leading to an over-under record of 6-4-1.
This week, the Golden Bears will look to pick up another win, as they are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford. With the 7-point victory, California also covered the spread. The team finished the game by throwing for one touchdown pass. Overall, the Golden Bears had 280 passing yards on a completion percentage of 53.5%. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 5.1 yards per carry for a total of 113 yards.
The team’s leading quarterback is Jack Plummer, who comes into the game with a passer rating of 86.24 on a completion percentage of 61.9%. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Jeremiah Hunter, who has caught 52 passes for a total of 812 yards. The top option in the run game for the team is Jayden Ott, who has carried the ball 156 times for a total of 841 yards.
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BETTING TRENDS
Over the Bruin’s last ten games, they have a strong record of 7-3-0 while also going 5-5-0 against the spread. The team’s average scoring differential was 10.0, as they averaged 39.5 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 29.5. Their last ten over-under record is 7-3-0.
In their last five games away from home, the Bruins have a straight-up record of 3-2-0 while going 3-2-0 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 42.2 points per game in these contests.
Looking back on their last ten games, the Golden Bears have an ATS record of just 5-5-0. In addition, their straight-up record is only 3-7-0. They have a negative scoring differential in these games by averaging 22.5 per game and allowing 28.6. Their last ten over-under record is 5-4-1.
Through their last five home contests, the Golden Bears’ offense has averaged 28.2 points per game while allowing an average of 27.0. California posted an overall record of 3-2-0 while going 3-2-0 ATS.
KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
So far, the Bruins are averaging 40.0 points per game on offense, which is good for 5th most in college football and has a good matchup against a California defense that is giving up 27.18 points per game and has its problems getting off the field on 3rd down.
Although the Bruins have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. a California defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 67.45%.
On the ground, the UCLA offense is averaging 236.82 yards per game, good for 6th in the country. This has come while ranking 48th in attempts at 38.36 per game. The Bruins will be facing a California defense that is ranked 44th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 188.25 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Golden Bears will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 98th in the NCAA in points scored.
The team could be in line for a strong performance vs. UCLA’s defense, which allows an average of 28.36 points per game.
So far, the California offense is averaging just 99.18 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 27.27 rush attempts per game (129th). This week, the Golden Bears will be facing a UCLA defense that is ranked 56th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 112.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
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