Over/Under Prediction: Will the Flames and Mountaineers Light Up the Scoreboard?

Liberty Flames (4-0 SU, ATS 1-2) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-2 SU, ATS 1-2)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, September 28th
Location: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: Lib -3.5/ASU +3.5
Money Line: Flames -160/App State +133
Over/Under: 62.5

Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone will be the site for this week five non-conference matchup between the Liberty Flames and the Appalachian State Mountaineers. The game is set for 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 28th, and will be broadcast on ESPN+. Liberty comes in with a 4-0 record, while Appalachian State is 2-2. The Flames are favored by -3.5 points, with the over/under line at 62.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Liberty Flames and Appalachian State Mountaineers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Appalachian State Mountaineers have the leg up at 3-0. Against the spread, each team went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 2-1. These games averaged a combined 49 points per contest.

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Liberty Flames Recent Form:

Liberty is now 4-0 after their 35-24 win over East Carolina. The Flames, who were -7.5 point favorites, not only won but also covered the spread. This game’s over/under was 54.5 points, but the teams combined for 59 points, hitting the over.

Liberty jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but East Carolina closed the gap to 17-7 by halftime. The Pirates then outscored the Flames 14-7 in the third quarter, but Liberty shut them out in the fourth to come out on top.

Liberty’s offense was in sync in their 35-24 win over East Carolina, racking up 415 total yards and 26 first downs. The ground game was effective, gaining 192 yards and scoring one touchdown, while the passing game added 223 yards and four scores.

Quarterback Kaidon Salter completed 59.4% of his passes for 223 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception, ending the game with a passer rating of 107.16. Quinton Cooley led the ground attack with 105 yards on 19 carries, and Reese Smith was the top receiver with six catches for 80 yards.

Liberty’s defense will need to improve against the run after giving up 127 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in their last game. Overall, they allowed 331 total yards and 24 points to East Carolina. The Flames’ pass defense was more effective, holding East Carolina to 204 yards on 20 completions out of 36 attempts. Liberty’s defense did come up with one interception in the game.

 

Away Injury Report

FullName	Position	InjuryBodyPart	InjuryStatus
Darius Copeland	WR	Lower Body	Out

Appalachian State Mountaineers Recent Form:

Appalachian State is looking to bounce back after a 48-14 loss to South Alabama in which they were -9.5 point favorites. The Mountaineers’ record is now 2-2 for the season. The game’s over/under was set at 62.5 points, but the total score of 62 points fell just short of this line.

The Mountaineers fell behind early, trailing 14-0 after the first quarter. They managed to score in the second quarter, but South Alabama added two more touchdowns to lead 28-7 at halftime. Appalachian State was shut out in the third quarter and added just one more touchdown in the fourth, while South Alabama added 7 more points to their total.

Appalachian State’s offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, put up 393 total yards in their 48-14 loss to South Alabama. Aguilar completed 21 of 40 passes for 266 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Kaedin Robinson was the top receiver, hauling in six catches for 85 yards.

The Mountaineers’ offense moved the chains 24 times, with 127 yards coming on the ground. Maquel Haywood was the leading rusher, averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and he also found the end zone once.

Appalachian State’s defense will be looking for a major bounce-back performance after giving up 322 rushing yards and five touchdowns to South Alabama. The Jaguars’ ground game was dominant, and the Mountaineers’ defense allowed a total of 476 yards and 48 points. Against the pass, Appalachian State was more effective, giving up just 154 yards and two touchdowns on 16 completions.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• Across the Liberty Flames last five road games, the team averaged 30 points per game while allowing 27. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 4-1 straight-up.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has averaged 29 points per game while allowing an average of 35. Appalachian State posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 4-5-1 ATS.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Appalachian State Mountaineers have gone 2-2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Liberty Flames have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.

Free Pick

After digging into these teams, the over/under line is where there is an edge, as neither team’s defense is going to put up much of a fight. Although I wouldn’t characterize either team as offensive juggernauts, the defenses are going to struggle, making the over a great play for this matchup. Don’t get scared of by the line of 62.5, this is one is going over that.