Oregon vs. Washington Pick: PAC-12 Title Betting Predictions

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The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Friday in Las Vegas in the Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s a heavyweight matchup in a soon-to-be-shut down conference, with the winner of this game right in the thick of things for the College Football Playoff. It’s a rematch from a midseason game where the unbeaten Huskies won by three, 36-33, with the Huskies winning last year’s game, 37-34. One should envision another well-contested game in Vegas on Friday.

Tough Game to Sum Up

I think the urge on the part of a lot of people will be to combine the closeness of the first game these teams played with Oregon’s more impressive subsequent work and justify a stance on the Ducks. They see Washington in a slew of close games that is almost eerie, including last week’s 24-21 struggle with the Cougars. Unbeaten, they’ve been a big letdown against the spread lately. Then you see Oregon, fresh off a dominant 31-7 win over Oregon State last week. Week in and week out against conference opposition, we’re seeing winning margins for the Ducks in the 20s, 30s, and 40s, while the Huskies are crossing the finish line ahead by a nose.

Oregon’s better overall momentum and the ability of their offense to really blow up on a given day makes them a very viable choice in this matchup, but underselling Washington might be a mistake. Taking them against the spread has been miserable lately, and it seems like regardless of the strength of their conference foe, they will be competitive against this Huskies team. So maybe a high-flying Oregon team can take it to the next level. I wouldn’t be so sure.

The Case for the Huskies

While a slew of close games, especially against teams where they should be getting more separation, doesn’t reflect well on the Huskies, there is a flip side to that coin. They’re getting to a point in the season where having shown the ability to win close games will come in handy. It happened the first time the Huskies played the Ducks, with the offense stepping up late with the familiar connection of Michael Penix, Jr. to Rome Odunze. We’ve seen that from both sides of the ball this whole season, and now, at a point where the stakes are high, them winning close games is not something I’m inclined to exclusively count against them.

I’m not sure that last game, and even last season’s game to some degree, isn’t a decent reflection of what to expect when these teams tangle. Bo Nix and this versatile Oregon offense is going to be a little subdued playing this Huskies defense, while the Washington offense is more than adept at keeping pace. In a game that is about matchups, these two teams pair nicely, and I’d expect more of the same. That might run slightly counter to a general current of Oregon optimism and a feeling that the Huskies are prime to be plucked.

Edges for Washington

From a defensive standpoint, it’s hard to justify a stance of the Huskies being better, at least not based on the point-totals we’ve seen in the last half of the season. Oregon has prevented opponents from getting on a roll, but a lot of that is due to the other side of the ball, where their offense takes a stranglehold of the game. Their opponents have to come out of character in the face of a blowout, and it’s not really a great gauge of either their offense or Oregon’s defense in that setting. In a more-competitive game, you get a better idea of what’s happening. And with the Huskies’ weapons, with Penix, Jr. near 4000 yards passing and 35 touchdowns, the work of RB Dillon Johnson, and the standout receiver work of Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, this isn’t a spot where Oregon is necessarily going to see their defense take over.

Oregon backers this week might take comfort in seeing the Huskies allowing some points lately. But with Washington, we see an offense and a defense playing in tandem. One sets the stage for the other. A lot of it is situational, and when this defense has needed to deliver late-game stops, they have delivered every time. You can say Oregon has, too, the one exception this season being their game against this very opponent. Certain teams thrive in different areas. For Oregon, it has been a bonanza betting on them this season with ten covers in 12 games, thriving in the role of a big favorite most weeks. In the same role, the Huskies have not thrived. But that’s not what this game is. It’s not a Week 8 spot against Arizona State or a midseason game against Stanford. And in a spot where there are doubts surrounding the Huskies, and there’s not a point-margin to navigate, maybe this is where they shine more.

Take the Points

I won’t deny the way the last half of the season has played out has an Oregon win plastered all over it. I still see this as a close game that could go either way, making it hard to look away from the points being afforded Washington. Oregon still needs to turn the tables on a team that already beat them and now do it almost by double-digit points. It could be asking a lot from a team that hasn’t impressed of late but has still shown an ability to deliver in a pinch. I’ll take the Huskies.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Washington Huskies plus 9.5 points.