Oregon State Beavers vs. San Jose State Spartans Week 1 Predictions

Oregon State Beavers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 3:30PM EDT

Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ORST -17/SJSU +17 (BAS – Allows Predictem readers to bet on sides and totals at -105 odds, which saves you BIG money!)

Over/Under Total: 54.5

The Oregon State Beavers make the trip south to take on the San Jose State Spartans. This will begin the 2023 campaign for a Beavers bunch that really made a strong move last season, winning ten games, beating Oregon, and then winning a bowl game against Florida. With four straight wins and winning seven of eight to end the year, they hope to carry some momentum into this year. It starts with a San Jose St. team that isn’t being given any favors to begin the season, being fed to a pair of Pac-12 powers to begin the year. Last Saturday, to begin their season, they lost to the Trojans, 56-28, in a really tough road game at the LA Coliseum. Back at CEFCU Stadium, it should be more to their liking.

Can the Spartans Hang in There This Week?

Granted, they are not being subjected to an offensive wrecking ball like USC, at least get this one at home, but let’s face it, the Spartans are not built to thrive in the upper reaches of the Pac-12. For them, a winning season and making a bowl game coming out of the Mountain West is more their wheelhouse. But Jonathan Smith has stumbled upon a nice formula at Oregon State, securing the Beavers just their third ten-win season last year. We saw a defense that was among the tops in the conference and a hard-nosed attitude not often seen in Corvallis. They lost a lot of pieces, but this team’s success didn’t have a smoke-and-mirrors vibe to it, as they seemed to be fairly well-rounded.

Things may not have ended well at Clemson, and there are areas to address, but quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has a high ceiling and could thrive in his new environment. He was named the starter late in camp, but Ben Gulbranson was 7-1 as a starter, and it wasn’t ever going to be easy for the Clemson transfer. They have a nice three-pack of backs in Damian Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick, and Jam Griffin. There will be some pieces to replace aerially, but Uiagalelei will inherit a line that was really among the best in the nation that returns four starters. Granted, there is the chance this unit, with some new pieces, might need time to warm up to the season, but the Spartans’ defense will really be up against it at home.

Best Chance for San Jose State

Being able to compete in this spot might be a little out of range, but putting up some scores can make this a very tough spread for the favored Beavers to cover. They were ranked the top “D” in the Pac-12 last season. While there’s the chance that a new tradition has begun with Oregon State and they’re attracting better talent on that side of the ball, losing five of their top seven tacklers figures to cost them their edge in ’23. They’re not the most smothering or attacking defense, and their showing up on the field, diminished from last season, would really boost the Spartans’ chances.

One can’t help but think that their performance in week one bodes well for this week. Spartans’ veteran QB Chevan Cordeiro had a good game, both with his arm and his feet. Kairee Robinson ran in a score, while Quali Conley showed some promise, with a 57-yard run among his highlights. Former QB-turned-WR Nick Nash made a big splash with three TD catches. This kind of explosivity, even on an inconsistent basis, is a nice feature to have on a San Jose State that has indeed been put in tough to start the season but might also be good enough to keep from getting lambasted.

There will be teams this season who put up a lot of points against USC, only to come down to earth in more difficult spots. This could happen to the Spartans’ offense this week. Four touchdowns were nice in the Coliseum against a nationally-ranked team, even if they are known for offense. They covered the spread, and that’s what counts. Now they are taking on a team that led the conference last season, just on the opposite side of the ball as USC. And sure, a lot of pieces were lost. Chances are they will not be the Pac-12’s top defense come season’s end. But it’s still not going to be a breeze for the San Jose offense, positive first signs against the Trojans notwithstanding.

Questions

Last season, the Beavers also opened up against two MWC teams, beating Boise by 17 and Fresno by only three. Are they not really an ideal team to take on the role of big favorite? They’re more competent than they are explosive. After giving up gobs of offense last week, will we see a San Jose “D” start to break a little in this game, their second against a good offense? Or will the moving pieces in an Oregon St. offense that hasn’t played yet be enough to keep them from running up the score? How far has the Oregon State defense slipped from last season? Will we see some of the same big-play ability and variety we saw from the Spartans’ offense in their first game this week?

Take the Points

San Jose likely doesn’t scare Oregon State, and I think with a team like them, you want a little edge and urgency. Not that they aren’t just good enough to come into San Jose and beat a flawed team, and routinely cover the spread. But I think San Jose is just good enough on offense to keep what looks to be a diminished Oregon State defense honest. Being at home helps, as does getting their first taste of real action last week against an offense that will make all the subsequent ones they face pale in comparison. I like the Spartans to cover the spread.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Jose Spartans plus points. 

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