Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Beavers Best Bet for 11/24/21

Oregon State Beavers (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)

The Oregon State Beavers take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene in a big Pac-12 Conference showdown. One of the oldest rivalry games, the game formerly known as the Civil War this season comes with some high stakes, with Oregon still making a run at a potential CFP slot, while Oregon St. is looking to put that stamp of validation of what has been a good season for them, as well. Last week, they came close to doing Oregon a favor in beating Washington, coming up just short in a 22-20 squeaker. Meanwhile, the Ducks kept things rolling with a 49-13 beating of Arizona State. Who can win this big rivalry game on Friday?

Getting a Lay of the Land

On one hand, Oregon winning 11 of the last 14 of these matchups attests to a generally better overall program trajectory, with some awful Beavers teams in that mix. Two wins in the last three years for the Beavers, however, illustrate the narrowing of the gap between these in-state conference rivals. Lately, we see higher-scoring close games between these teams and this season could easily follow suit. Oregon State will not be easy pickings, with three losses by a total of eight points. A twist here and a turn there and we could be looking at a special season for the Beavers.

In many ways, Oregon St. is ideal in the role of spoiler while also looking to put the finishing touches on what has been a successful season. They will always be “up” for this game, and recent history shows they can hang right in there. Oregon getting this at home is a break, and they’ve also proven a certain resoluteness this season, getting through a tough schedule with only a 3-point loss at Washington separating them from a perfect season.

Oregon a Tougher Proposition This Season?

The results themselves bear out a higher level of overall competence from the Ducks this season. Bo Nix and this offense have stepped it up a notch while also becoming a more reliable unit. But maybe it’s time to start giving more credit to a defense that emerged from a schedule packed with dangerous offenses, allowing more than 27 points just once in the conference. And other than being thrifty with the point-allowance, they can make big plays to aid further an offensive unit that has had room to work with and then some to spare. Covering the spread nine times out of 11 tries attests to how well they’ve delivered this season.

With an offense that usually performs at a high level and a defense that has managed to keep it together all season, you start to wonder about the paths to success for this Oregon State bunch. Quarterback DJ Uiagaleilei, RB Damien Martinez, and their talented ball-catchers are solid, but they don’t surpass anything Oregon has seen this season. And while their defense has tightened up in the second half of the season to some degree, helped by a disruptive and pass-rushing defense with a ball-hawk secondary, there have been enough iffy moments to warrant concern against an Oregon team whose offense doesn’t really have off-days, especially at home.

What Can the Beavers Do About It?

Some may have thought they saw the writing on the wall when Oregon St. opened their conference schedule with a loss to the Cougars, but since then, they’ve taken just two razor-close losses in the conference while winning the rest of their games. There hasn’t been much that they have experienced to suggest they’re ready to be beaten by over 14 points in the conference, which is what the Ducks will need to do to cover this spread. Maybe some of the spots they’ve been in have made their defense look better than it is, but over the second half of the season, they’ve been better.

Alas, that foolproof nature of the Oregon offense surfaces. But maybe the Beavers can be as good as one of those defenses that keep Oregon in the 30s or, at the most, the low-forties, as opposed to the high-forties and beyond, in which case that 14-point allowance will go a long way for the Beavers in this spot. With the talent the Beavers have on offense and their overall versatility, I don’t see the Ducks’ “D” just shutting them down. But how well they perform is key to how this game goes. If we see the same Oregon State offense we saw last week at home or the one we saw in recent weeks against Colorado and Arizona, that 14-point allowance might not really come all that close to cutting the mustard. But they’ve popped off enough to make one think they can find that extra gear in a game where it’s pretty certain they’re going to be up for it.

Take the Points

I don’t really want to be standing on the tracks when the Oregon Ducks train comes roaring through, but between the overall quality of Oregon State, how they typically get up for this game, and how no one in the conference seems good enough to stomp them, I think the Beavers with two TDs might be the move. I do think Oregon is better than they’ve been the last several years where we see Oregon State narrowing the gap in this rivalry. I think that should be enough to get them the win in this game, but it’s still hard to imagine it not being somewhat close at the end. I’ll take Oregon State and the points in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon State Beavers plus 14 points.